Bitcoin is testing a long-term trend line that CryptoQuant identifies as a potential turning point for the market. A sustained move above the 20-month simple moving average at $87,165 could open the way for the cryptocurrency to challenge and potentially exceed its previous cycle highs, according to analysis reported by Cointelegraph.
The latest assessment comes as Bitcoin trades below that level after losing the trend line in December 2025. CryptoQuant’s market cycle signals tool suggests the market’s recent decline may represent a completed “reset” rather than the end of the broader bullish cycle. The firm’s separate bull-bear market cycle indicator also continues to classify Bitcoin as being in a bull market.
Why the 20-month average matters
The level at $87,165 is Bitcoin’s 20-month simple moving average, a measure calculated from the cryptocurrency’s average monthly closing prices over a 20-month period. CryptoQuant describes this line as an “inflection frontier” because it has previously marked an important change in market direction.
The moving average is also the centre line used in the Bollinger Bands framework applied to CryptoQuant’s market cycle signals. Bollinger Bands place additional levels above and below a moving average using standard deviation, a measure of how widely prices have moved around their average.
As of Oct. 16, the upper band stood at $121,640, while the lower band was at $52,694. CryptoQuant labels the area between the lower band and the 20-month average an “accumulation base.” In its interpretation, the average itself has been associated with periods when investors capitulated after Bitcoin fell below it.
Bitcoin last lost this line in December 2025. The current setup therefore involves a possible move back toward a level that has acted as resistance since then. The 20-month average is close to Bitcoin’s 2026 opening price of $87,490, creating another point of overlap that could make the area more significant in the analysis. Cointelegraph also reported that substantial sell orders remain near this region on cryptocurrency exchange order books.
CryptoQuant sees room beyond previous highs
CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain said the market had completed its reset a little more than a year after Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $124,709 on Oct. 6, 2025. The source material also identifies a more recent October 2025 peak of $126,200.
The market cycle signals framework does not function as a conventional buy or sell signal. Instead, it uses the Bollinger Bands structure and other market information to assess where Bitcoin may stand in its cycle. Under the framework, the upper band is associated with a point at which larger, or “smart money,” investors may begin taking profits.
That upper band currently sits below the reported $126,200 high. CryptoQuant’s interpretation is that, if Bitcoin can reclaim the 20-month moving average, a subsequent advance could continue above the previous record rather than stopping at that level. The analysis is conditional: the moving average must first be recovered successfully.
The report also refers to $82,442 as a current Bitcoin support zone. The level is described as an area that some retail investors fear could represent the market top, while CryptoQuant’s indicator presents the current phase as an earlier stage of a potential move.
On-chain indicators remain bullish
CryptoQuant’s broader view remains positive even as cryptocurrency and other risk assets face macroeconomic headwinds. Its bull-bear market cycle indicator combines several on-chain profitability measures to estimate whether Bitcoin’s market conditions are more consistent with a bull or bear phase.
The indicator had a reading of 0.186, up from 0.042 in August. CryptoQuant chief executive Ki Young Ju said in late August that the bear market was over, based on the indicator’s readings. Separately, XWIN Research Japan pointed to three on-chain metrics during the week and described them as grounds for cautious optimism that bullish momentum could return through the end of October.
These indicators offer a market-cycle interpretation rather than a guarantee of future price movements. Bitcoin’s ability to regain and hold the 20-month average remains the central technical condition highlighted in the analysis.
Current market picture
Moneyiar market data recorded Bitcoin at $80,927.34 at 21:44 on Oct. 17, 2026, Tehran time. That represented a 0.84% decline over 24 hours and a 2.5% decline over seven days.
Other assets in the supplied Moneyiar data were also lower:
- Quant (QNT): $192.75, down 5.01% in 24 hours and 19.7% over seven days.
- Monad (MON): $0.02148, down 6.09% in 24 hours and 14.95% over seven days.
- Ontology (ONT): $0.05084, down 3.11% in 24 hours and 19.26% over seven days.
The figures in this section are Moneyiar data at the stated time and show Bitcoin still below the $87,165 moving-average level identified by CryptoQuant.
