Bitcoin’s latest recovery has lost momentum below the $84,000 mark, leaving investors who bought during 2025 as the only yearly buyer group still below its average purchase price. According to CoinDesk, data from checkonchain shows that cohort’s volume-weighted cost basis at approximately $88,000, a level that could become a source of resistance if bitcoin returns there and some holders seek to exit near breakeven.
The last underwater yearly cohort
Bitcoin reached a monthly high of about $87,500 in September before moving sideways and then retreating below $84,000. The 2025 group is now the only yearly cohort with an average cost above the market, while buyers from other years are broadly in profit based on the cost-basis levels cited in the data.
Cost basis refers to the average price paid by a group of investors. When the market approaches that level, holders may sell to recover their original investment, creating potential resistance. Other investors may instead add to their positions, meaning the same level can become a point of renewed demand.
The 2024 cohort offers an example of how such levels have behaved during the current cycle. Bitcoin climbed to roughly $82,100 in May, close to that group’s average purchase price, then encountered resistance and fell back to $60,000. The cryptocurrency later moved above the level in August.
Earlier cohorts mark lower levels
The 2023 cohort’s average cost basis is currently around $65,000. That level has repeatedly acted as support, including when bitcoin moved toward $60,000 in February. It generally held during the 2026 bear market, although bitcoin briefly traded below it.
The 2026 cohort has an average purchase price of approximately $73,500. Buyers in that group have mostly remained profitable since late August, when bitcoin rose above that threshold.
Together, the yearly levels provide a map of prices where different groups could reassess their positions. They are not fixed barriers, but the historical reactions around them show why market participants monitor the cohorts as bitcoin moves through the cycle.
ETF investors provide another reference point
The average cost basis for U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds is approximately $82,300. This figure measures the average cost of deposits into the funds rather than the purchase price of a single individual investor.
ETF investors only recently returned to profit for the first time this year. As a result, the $82,300 level could become a potential support area if bitcoin continues to decline. Support describes a price zone where buying may increase or selling may ease, although the data does not guarantee that outcome.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data at 09:09 on October 8, 2026, puts bitcoin at $82,993.88, down 1.09% over 24 hours and 0.72% over seven days. JUST was $0.1393, down 1.04% in 24 hours but up 3.67% over seven days. Celestia was $0.4812, up 6.17% over 24 hours and 8.11% over seven days.
