Bitcoin ended the third quarter with a gain of about 43%, marking one of its strongest quarterly performances in recent years and sharply exceeding returns from major US stock indexes and gold. The move has brought renewed attention to the cryptocurrency’s historically strong fourth quarter, while also leaving the market facing heavy potential selling between $84,000 and $86,500.
According to CryptoSlate, Bitcoin rose from roughly $58,600 at the start of July after three consecutive quarterly declines. Demand strengthened through August and September as institutional buying returned and sellers exited positions at progressively higher prices. Over the comparable period through Sept. 29, the Nasdaq Composite gained about 5%, the S&P 500 rose roughly 4% and gold advanced less than 2%.
ETF flows replace some leverage
The latest rally has coincided with a significant change in the sources of market demand. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds moved from approximately $5 billion in year-to-date net outflows at the end of July to about $1 billion in net inflows by late September. That represents a swing of around $6 billion in two months.
The funds took in $2.39 billion during the latest reported week, their largest weekly inflow since October 2025. Every session in that week recorded positive demand, although daily inflows slowed from $999 million on Sept. 21 to approximately $135 million on Sept. 25.
At the same time, futures activity declined. Aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest fell from above 700,000 BTC on Sept. 21 to around 644,000 BTC, its lowest level since early January. The seven-day reduction of approximately 49,000 BTC was the largest since October 2025. CME open interest alone dropped by 16,075 BTC on Monday, its third-largest daily decline on record.
Lower leverage can reduce the risk of another liquidation-led selloff, but it also removes a source of speculative buying. That places greater importance on investors purchasing Bitcoin directly through spot markets and ETFs. Bitfinex estimated that Bitcoin held with a cost basis between $82,500 and $84,000 nearly tripled to 306,000 tokens in three days as buyers absorbed coins sold by both profitable holders and investors taking losses.
Supply barriers remain near current prices
Bitcoin’s recovery has not removed the risk of resistance from holders waiting to sell. Bitfinex estimates that roughly 1.39 million BTC changed hands between $84,000 and $86,500. This group includes long-term holders approaching breakeven and newer buyers whose positions moved into losses after Bitcoin’s retreat from its Sept. 21 high near $87,400.
The concentration means that renewed advances into the range could bring additional selling. Bitcoin must also contend with a further supply cluster near $88,000 to $90,000, while Glassnode identifies another important level around $96,700.
CryptoQuant said Bitcoin reclaimed its 365-day moving average last week for the first time since March 2023. The asset’s realized price, an estimate of the average cost basis of coins in circulation, has risen to about $77,000 and remained intact during the latest recovery.
Bitfinex estimates that ETF purchases relative to the roughly 450 BTC produced by miners each day fell from 25.6 times issuance during the session with $999 million of inflows to 1.8 times on Sept. 29. The firm said demand would need to return toward five times daily issuance, equivalent to about $190 million in ETF buying per day, to absorb overhead supply more quickly.
A move above $85,000 would return approximately 760,000 BTC to profit and lift the share of supply in profit toward the 75% level Bitfinex associates with stronger bull-market phases. The measure stood at 71.3% on Sept. 29, down from 78.1% eight days earlier.
Strong seasonality meets higher yields
The fourth quarter has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest period, with average gains since 2013 estimated at roughly 77% to 85%, depending on the dataset. BloFin Research calculated that a repeat of its 77.07% average fourth-quarter return from current levels would place Bitcoin near $147,000. Its median fourth-quarter gain of 47.73% would imply a price of about $123,000.
These figures are mechanical historical comparisons rather than forecasts. The source material also notes that successive Bitcoin cycles have produced progressively smaller gains from their lows.
Options positioning nevertheless shows traders preparing for a possible move higher. Nexo said Bitcoin’s average put-to-call ratio over the previous two weeks was 0.67, while calls for $140,000 expiring Dec. 25 represented the largest individual position. Dealer positioning points to the $95,000-$97,000 area as another significant test if Bitcoin clears the nearer supply zones.
The broader interest-rate environment remains a constraint. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 81 basis points during the quarter, while long-term borrowing costs reached multi-decade highs. Markets initially placed the probability of another quarter-point Federal Reserve increase in October at about 65%, but softer inflation data later reduced that estimate to roughly 38%. The Fed’s October meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27-28, followed by another decision on Dec. 8-9.
Bitcoin’s downside level identified by Bitfinex is $81,300. Sustained trading below it alongside renewed ETF outflows could expose the realized-price area near $77,000. On the upside, stronger ETF demand and a break above $86,500 would bring the yearly open near $87,700 and the larger supply zone around $90,000 into focus.
Current market picture
Moneyiar market data at 09:44 on Oct. 1, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $83,826.60, up 0.39% over 24 hours and 0.83% over seven days. TRON was at $0.3364, down 0.54% in 24 hours and 0.78% over seven days. Aethir traded at $0.005945, down 1.89% daily but up 5.84% weekly, while FUNToken stood at $0.007992, up 12.99% over 24 hours and 2.74% over seven days.
