Bitcoin remained under pressure on Thursday, trading near the estimated cost basis of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds as renewed tensions involving Iran weighed on stocks and other risk-sensitive assets.
BTC/USD fell to $81,256 on Bitstamp, a 2.9% daily decline, according to Cointelegraph. The move extended bitcoin’s losses after the cryptocurrency had approached $85,000 the previous day. It also kept the market below the $82,000 level around the opening of Wall Street.
The decline came as US President Donald Trump said the United States was “not negotiating” with Iran and suggested that a new military action could occur soon. His comments revived concerns over geopolitical escalation and contributed to a broader retreat from risk assets. Trump was referring to the US midterm elections on Nov. 3 when he said many people expected developments after the vote.
Stocks retreat as geopolitical risk returns
US equities opened lower as investors assessed the latest Iran-related comments alongside company-specific news. The S&P 500 was down 1.3% at the time of reporting, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite had fallen 2.3%.
Mixed reactions to Tesla’s earnings and capital-spending plans added to the pressure in the stock market. The broader mood was also affected by renewed concern about valuations in the artificial-intelligence sector and a rise in energy prices, according to Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets, as cited by Bloomberg.
The shift away from riskier assets benefited US government bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note moved toward 5%, although it fell to its lowest level since Sept. 23 during the day. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions, so a decline in the yield indicates stronger demand for the bonds.
Bitcoin often trades as part of the wider market’s risk environment, particularly when investors are reducing exposure to assets viewed as more sensitive to economic, interest-rate or geopolitical uncertainty. Thursday’s simultaneous decline in bitcoin and US stocks reflected that risk-off backdrop, although the source material does not establish a single cause for bitcoin’s move.
ETF cost basis becomes a key level
Bitcoin was hovering around $81,500, described as the approximate cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. An ETF is an exchange-traded investment vehicle that holds or tracks an underlying asset; in the case of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the relevant underlying asset is bitcoin. The cost basis refers to the average price at which holdings were acquired.
That level has become an important reference point for market watchers because sustained trading below it could indicate that ETF investors are no longer sitting on average gains, while holding above it would keep the market closer to their average entry price. The material does not provide a breakdown of individual ETF flows or identify which funds make up the estimate.
Analysts at Bitfinex Alpha, the research arm of crypto exchange Bitfinex, said bitcoin could remain in a relatively narrow range before the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate meeting on Oct. 28. Their stated range was $81,300 to $84,400.
In that assessment, continued ETF demand together with stable leverage conditions could help bitcoin break above $84,400. Conversely, wider macroeconomic pressure and a daily close below $81,300 could raise the risk of a move toward the Oct. 15 low of $79,821.
The $84,400 level therefore represents a near-term ceiling in the analysis, while $81,300 is the lower boundary of the projected range. These are market levels identified by the Bitfinex Alpha analysts, not a forecast or guarantee of future price performance.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar market data at 23:13 on Oct. 22, 2026, showed the following prices and performance:
- Bitcoin (BTC): $81,250.13, down 3.58% over 24 hours and 1.05% over seven days.
- Dai (DAI): $0.999887, unchanged over 24 hours and down 0.02% over seven days.
- Lighter (LIT): $3.4219, down 11.15% over 24 hours but up 13.08% over seven days.
- OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP): $1.7292, down 5.74% over 24 hours and 8.07% over seven days.
Bitcoin’s Moneyiar price was therefore close to the $81,300 lower edge of the range outlined by Bitfinex Alpha and near the ETF cost-basis area cited in the report. Market participants are also looking ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting on Oct. 28, which analysts identified as the next major event for the short-term trading range.
Longer-term sentiment was more cautious. Kalshi traders had reduced the probability of bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by mid-January 2027 to 3%, according to the source material. That figure reflects the cited market pricing at the time and does not establish what bitcoin will ultimately do.
