Bitcoin began the third week of October near $82,000 as global equities attempted to recover from a technology-led sell-off. The cryptocurrency’s latest weekly close fell below a closely watched support zone, while softer expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate increases offered a mixed backdrop for digital assets and other risk-sensitive markets. According to Cointelegraph, analysts are watching whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 as investors turn their attention to major technology-company earnings.
Asian stocks lead an early recovery
South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index gained nearly 1.8% on Monday, a sharp change in direction after the benchmark suffered a difficult week. The index fell 2.8% on Oct. 12 and reached a weekly low of 5,455 on Thursday, temporarily putting its week-to-date decline at 17%.
The weakness spread from Korean markets to other Asian equities before US stocks also came under pressure. The S&P 500 ended the previous Friday 2% lower for the week. Concerns about the scale of artificial-intelligence spending and the debt associated with those investment plans weighed on technology shares. In South Korea, worries about increasing competition from China in semiconductor manufacturing added to the pressure.
Markets are now looking toward corporate earnings rather than a heavy schedule of US economic releases. About 15% of S&P 500 companies are expected to publish third-quarter results this week, including SpaceX on Tuesday and Tesla and Meta on Wednesday.
Warnings of a possible “Black Monday” circulated on social media over the weekend, coinciding with the 39th anniversary of the 1987 market crash. The early market action did not match that alarm: the KOSPI rose on Monday, while S&P 500 futures were 0.7% higher at the time of the report.
Market commentator The Kobeissi Letter argued that investor demand could support equities. It also noted that, although large technology companies have driven much of the S&P 500’s strength, 80% of the index’s constituents remained at least 10% below their record highs.
Markets reduce expectations for repeated Fed hikes
Interest-rate expectations have also changed ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 28 policy decision. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the probability of rates remaining in the current 3.75%-4.00% range in October at 85%.
For the December meeting, markets assigned an 11% chance of another pause. The implied probability of a single 25-basis-point increase by the end of the year stood at 75%, while the probability of a 50-basis-point increase was 13%. In other words, investors had removed expectations for two further hikes and were primarily pricing one additional quarter-point move.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not offer forward guidance during a discussion with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. He said he did not prejudge meetings or state in advance what he might do at the remaining meetings of the year. Markets interpreted the absence of guidance as a relatively dovish signal.
Inflation data, however, continued to complicate the outlook. The September Producer Price Index rose 1.7% month over month, its largest increase since March 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said gasoline prices, which jumped 20.3%, accounted for half of the increase in final-demand goods.
Fuel also contributed more than half of September’s Consumer Price Index increase. Annual CPI inflation reached 3.7%, beating expectations by 0.1 percentage point. Mosaic Asset Company warned that persistent inflation could keep monetary policy tighter and continue to weigh on cryptocurrencies and other risk assets.
Bitcoin’s support level comes under scrutiny
Bitcoin’s weekly candle closed at $82,000, below the $82,500-$82,800 support area followed by traders. Rekt Capital said the close could lead to another test of the $80,000 level. The analyst also warned that a failed attempt to reclaim roughly $82,500 could turn that former support area into resistance and open the way to a move below $80,000 in the coming weeks.
The cryptocurrency’s market structure also showed signs of weaker US-based demand. CryptoQuant reported that the Coinbase Premium Index fell to -0.141 on Oct. 18, its lowest reading since June 30. The indicator compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and Binance; a negative reading can signal weaker demand on Coinbase relative to the other exchange.
CryptoQuant said that if the index remains negative, demand may be insufficient to absorb selling pressure, increasing the possibility of a short-term correction. That weakness contrasts with Bitcoin’s ability to retain gains made since late June, when it rebounded from multiyear lows below $58,000 on July 1. A local high near $87,000 remains an area containing several resistance factors, including the 2026 yearly open and the 20-month simple moving average.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data at 22:14 on Oct. 19, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $82,022.99, up 0.59% over 24 hours but down 0.73% over seven days. The figures place the cryptocurrency close to the $82,000 weekly close described in the market analysis, while its weekly performance remains slightly negative.
