Bitcoin is testing the upper edge of its recent trading range, but the cryptocurrency has yet to reclaim the 2026 yearly opening level at $87,570. The move comes as traders assess rising US bond yields, changing expectations for further Federal Reserve rate increases and historically favorable October seasonality.
Bitcoin reached an intraday high near $87,000 on some exchanges after recording its strongest weekly close since late January. The close was $86,532 on Bitstamp. According to Cointelegraph, this was the fourth attempt since Sept. 21 to push through the upper part of the range, although buyers have so far failed to establish a sustained move above the yearly open.
$87,570 remains the key technical hurdle
The 2026 yearly open has become the immediate resistance level for BTC/USD. Short-term trading has also been shaped by liquidity around the current price. Nearby short positions were liquidated around $85,500, while bids and asks became more concentrated around spot prices, limiting the size of price swings.
CoinGlass data identified another concentration near $83,700, in addition to the area around the yearly open. These levels matter to short-term traders because clusters of leveraged positions can contribute to rapid moves when prices reach them.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital described Bitcoin as being held between approximately $82,500 support and $86,700 resistance. In that framework, a break below $82,500 could put the cryptocurrency at risk of returning to its earlier 2026 range between $60,000 and $80,000. A decisive move above $86,700, by contrast, would point toward a higher range whose stated ceiling is $93,700.
These levels describe the market structure being monitored by analysts; they are not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Bond yields and Federal Reserve minutes take center stage
The week’s main macroeconomic focus is the US bond market. Last week, yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds reached 5.34% and 5.69%, respectively—their highest levels since 2002. The 10-year yield later eased after weak nonfarm payrolls data, but recovered most of that decline and stood at 5.25% on Monday when the source report was prepared.
The rise in yields comes as traders reassess the outlook for US interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s minutes from its September Federal Open Market Committee meeting are due Wednesday. At that meeting, officials voted to raise rates by 0.25 percentage point.
Expectations for another quarter-point increase at the October meeting have changed sharply. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed those odds reaching 70% a week earlier before falling to 18% at the time of the report. Market consensus still favored a December increase, while some analysts expected the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance through the end of the year.
Higher yields and expectations that interest rates will remain elevated can weigh on risk-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies, by keeping financial conditions tighter. Timothy Chubb, chief investment officer at Girard Advisory Services, said the post-payrolls rebound in yields was consistent with a view that the Federal Reserve could keep rates “higher for longer.” The source material also noted continuing attention to inflation and volatile oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
The August Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, had limited impact on market assessments despite coming in below expectations. The next major inflation release cited in the report is the Consumer Price Index, scheduled for Oct. 14.
October seasonality provides a contrasting backdrop
Bitcoin’s early-October performance has been stronger than its historical pattern for the opening days of the month. CryptoQuant data showed that Bitcoin gained 1.4% during the first three days of October, compared with an average decline of 0.66% for that period. Month-to-date gains stood at 2.7% in the source report.
Longer-term data also presents October as a historically strong month. CoinGlass found that Bitcoin has risen by an average of 18.7% in October since 2013. Across the past 13 years, only three October periods ended lower, with the steepest decline being 13% in 2014.
Seasonal averages do not determine the outcome of an individual month, but they help explain why market participants are watching whether Bitcoin can turn its 2026 annual candle positive. The price remains just below the yearly opening level, leaving the $87,570 mark as the immediate test while macroeconomic developments continue to influence risk appetite.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data at 09:38-09:39 on Oct. 5, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $85,891.926079728, up 0.79% over 24 hours and 4.02% over seven days. Other listed assets were mixed:
- Nexus (NEX): $0.0000008247, down 0.60% over 24 hours and up 1.39% over seven days.
- Four (FORM): $0.2833382973, down 0.75% over 24 hours and 2.87% over seven days.
- OpenLedger (OPEN): $0.1216081132, up 1.93% over 24 hours and down 6.19% over seven days.
The Moneyiar figures are market snapshots at the stated times and may differ from prices on individual exchanges.
