Bitcoin was ahead of the S&P 500 on most trading sessions in October through Oct. 26, but larger losses on its weaker days left the cryptocurrency trailing stocks for the month. The contrast highlights a recovery that has improved in relative performance while still facing weak spot demand and concentrated exchange-traded fund flows.
According to CryptoSlate, Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 in 10 of 18 October sessions, or 55.6%. Yet Bitcoin declined 4.25% over that period, while the S&P 500 gained 0.33%, leaving a 4.58 percentage-point gap in the stock index’s favour.
The daily pattern explains the divergence. Bitcoin’s average advantage on its 10 winning sessions was approximately 0.71%. On the eight days when it underperformed, its average shortfall was about 1.44%—roughly twice the size of its average gain over the sessions it won.
Relative performance improves, but losses remain heavier
Glassnode data cited in the report indicate that Bitcoin’s win rate against the S&P 500 has recently moved back above 50%. That is a notable change from June, when Bitcoin outperformed the index on only about one session in five, its weakest stretch in roughly six years.
However, a higher share of winning days does not necessarily translate into a monthly gain. A market can outperform more frequently and still lose ground when its down days are materially larger than its up days. October’s session-by-session figures illustrate that effect.
The recovery is also being supported by a particularly concentrated exchange-traded fund market. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, known by its ticker IBIT, accounted for 96.3% of US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows from August through Oct. 26, based on Farside Investors data cited in the report.
Coinbase Institutional’s Oct. 23 analysis had estimated that IBIT attracted about $6 billion from Aug. 1, compared with approximately $500 million across the other US spot Bitcoin ETFs. That earlier calculation put IBIT’s share at about 92% of net inflows.
IBIT dominates as rival funds see withdrawals
Farside’s fund-level figures show that between Aug. 3 and Oct. 26, IBIT recorded about $5.7 billion in net inflows, while all other funds combined brought in approximately $221 million. The rising concentration is not solely a result of new money entering IBIT: withdrawals from competing funds have also increased its share of the overall total.
October provides a clear example. IBIT added about $866 million, while rival funds lost more than $1 billion, leaving the entire US spot Bitcoin ETF category with roughly $203 million in net outflows. Across the month’s 18 sessions, IBIT averaged $48.1 million in daily net inflows, whereas competing funds averaged $59.4 million in daily outflows. Together, that amounted to average daily outflows of $11.3 million.
For the category to reach zero net flows at that pace, IBIT’s daily inflows would need to rise by about 24%, to approximately $59.4 million. The concentration measure describes the observable ETF channel, however, rather than all Bitcoin buying. ETF creations and redemptions move through hedging, inventory and settlement processes, and the data do not capture individual purchases or total demand for Bitcoin.
The balance between corporate and fund demand has also shifted. In the first half of 2026, corporate treasuries bought about $14.5 billion of Bitcoin while US spot ETFs recorded nearly $5 billion of net outflows. Since August, ETFs have drawn roughly $6.4 billion, compared with about $1.5 billion from corporate treasuries.
Thin liquidity leaves the recovery vulnerable
Several indicators point to a market in which the regulated-access bid is firmer than underlying spot demand. Stablecoin supply is about $12.7 billion below its May peak, while the seven-day Coinbase premium remained negative through October as of Coinbase Institutional’s Oct. 23 report. A stablecoin supply measure reflects available liquidity, while the Coinbase premium compares prices across venues.
Glassnode’s latest weekly figures put spot cumulative volume delta at negative $80.5 million, futures open interest near $37.5 billion and active addresses at approximately 615,200. The options 25-delta skew increased to 10.4% from 8.9%, indicating stronger demand for downside protection.
Glassnode also reported on Oct. 7 that combined seven-day spot and ETF volume was about $6.8 billion, below the level seen on roughly 90% of days since January 2024. Identifiable new inflows accounted for less than two-fifths of the 30-day increase in realised capitalisation, meaning higher valuations can result from existing coins changing hands at higher prices rather than from a comparable amount of new money entering the market.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data at 22:39 on Oct. 25, 2026, put Bitcoin at $80,430.51, down 0.08% over 24 hours and 1.32% over seven days. Cronos was $0.0542903, down 1.83% over 24 hours and 3.03% over seven days. Ethereum Classic stood at $7.4999, down 1.92% and 2.23% over those periods, respectively. Monad was $0.0215496, down 0.49% in 24 hours but up 2.33% over seven days.
The figures present a mixed market picture: Bitcoin and the other listed assets were mostly lower over the short term, while Monad was the exception on a seven-day basis. For Bitcoin, the immediate question is whether ETF demand broadens beyond IBIT and whether spot-market liquidity strengthens enough to support the recovery.
