Bitcoin fell below $81,000 on October 8, reaching an intraday low near $80,800 as more than $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated. The decline came despite expectations that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, highlighting the market’s concern that a pause could postpone rather than remove further rate increases.
According to CryptoSlate, the September Federal Open Market Committee minutes, published on October 7, showed that most policymakers considered another rate increase by the end of the year probable. The minutes also emphasized that future decisions would depend on incoming economic data.
The market’s implied policy path points to December as the likely timing for a possible increase. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on October 8 that futures pricing as of the previous day assigned an 85% probability to at least one rate hike by December. The same pricing indicated an almost 80% probability of at least two hikes by March 2027, while the chance of three or more stood at 33%.
Why an October pause may not ease pressure
The probabilities cited by Waller are cumulative and market-implied rather than firm policy commitments. He also said further increases would be probable if economic data developed as expected, while noting that the central bank could skip individual meetings.
That means an October decision to hold rates steady would move the timing of the next possible increase further into the calendar, but would not necessarily change the broader direction markets are anticipating into 2027. For cryptocurrencies and other risk-sensitive assets, the prospect of higher rates can remain significant even when policymakers do not raise borrowing costs at every meeting.
Other market indicators added to that pressure on October 8. The 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5.305%, while the two-year yield was 4.821%. Brent crude traded at $104.87. Higher bond yields can keep financing costs elevated for risk assets, while oil prices can sustain concerns about inflation—both factors that may complicate expectations for an easier monetary-policy backdrop.
Thin demand amplified Bitcoin’s decline
Market structure also appears to have played a role in the size of Bitcoin’s move. Glassnode reported on October 7 that combined daily volume from spot exchanges and US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds was close to $6.8 billion. That level was below roughly 90% of the observations recorded since January 2024.
The same report estimated that new money from ETFs, stablecoins and corporate treasury purchases totaled $4.9 billion. Over 30 days, realized capitalization increased by $12.8 billion, which was less than 40% of the total amount involved. In practical terms, the recent advance had relied substantially on the repricing of coins already in the market, while the available buying depth to absorb new selling was relatively limited.
That thinner liquidity left leveraged traders especially vulnerable. CoinGlass recorded more than $1 billion in liquidations over the previous 24 hours at the time of reporting, including about $930 million in long positions. Long liquidations occur when bets on rising prices are forcibly closed, adding selling pressure as prices fall.
Key levels after the failed breakout
Before the decline, Glassnode had identified a modeled concentration of long liquidations between $81,700 and $83,300. It had also identified sizeable Binance bids around $81,000 to $81,250. Bitcoin’s move to approximately $80,800 indicates that price passed through those areas, allowing liquidations to intensify the drop.
The analysis identifies $85,500 as an important reclaim level. If buyers can rebuild above it while spot-market volume increases, Bitcoin would encounter a concentration of sell orders between $86,500 and $86,750. Above that area, Glassnode’s largest one-year liquidation cluster above the current price extends from $87,100 to $95,900, with the heaviest concentration near $92,000.
A sustained move through that zone could force short positions to close, potentially adding to upward momentum. However, if buyers fail to restore support, the next modeled liquidation cluster is near $75,000. These levels describe positioning and potential areas of forced trading; they are not forecasts or guarantees of where Bitcoin will move.
The next macroeconomic tests listed in the analysis are the September consumer-price report on October 14, the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for October 27-28, and the December 8-9 meeting. Bitcoin therefore faces several policy and inflation-related events while operating on a relatively thin base of buyers.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data at 21:54 Tehran time on October 8 showed Bitcoin at $81,643.54, down 1.79% over 24 hours and 3.40% over seven days. Cardano traded at $0.2331, down 8.05% over 24 hours and 4.89% over seven days. NEAR Protocol stood at $4.5289, down 13.66% over 24 hours and 5.27% over seven days.
Moneyiar’s data listing did not include a current price or performance figures for Polygon. Bitcoin remained the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, while the broader figures showed that losses extended beyond the market leader.
