Bitcoin is on course for its strongest September performance in the CoinGlass price record, with a 7.33% monthly gain narrowly ahead of the 7.29% return recorded in September 2024. The result depends on where the cryptocurrency finishes the month: a close above roughly $83,600 would preserve the record, while a weaker finish could leave 2024 at the top.
The potential result would also mark Bitcoin’s fourth consecutive positive September. According to Decrypt, that would be the longest run of green Septembers in the available data, reversing a period in which the cryptocurrency posted six straight monthly losses from 2017 through 2022.
A month that nearly turned negative
Bitcoin began September at approximately $78,500, following a 25% rise in August. The month then became more difficult for the market before recovering in its second half.
On Sept. 15, the Senate’s Clarity Act failed to clear a cloture vote by 49 to 50. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $450.4 million in outflows that day, their weakest daily showing since June.
The following day, the Federal Reserve lifted interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%. It was the central bank’s first rate increase since 2023. Bitcoin fell to approximately $75,000 after the decision, as cryptocurrencies and other risk-sensitive assets responded to changing expectations around the cost of money.
The decline raised the prospect that September would once again produce a negative return. Instead, flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs improved sharply. The funds attracted about $2.98 billion across seven consecutive sessions, including nearly $1 billion on Sept. 21, their strongest single day since October 2025.
At the same time, more than $800 million in short positions were liquidated over a 24-hour period. Such liquidations can add to upward pressure when traders betting on a decline are forced to close their positions. Bitcoin subsequently climbed to $87,354, its highest level since late January.
Why the September record matters
Bitcoin ended September lower in eight of the 13 years from 2013 through 2025. Six of those declines came consecutively between 2017 and 2022, helping establish the market’s so-called “Red September” reputation.
Even with the recent improvement, September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month by average performance. CoinGlass data cited in the report puts the average September return at negative 2.34%.
The pattern has shifted in the past three years. Bitcoin gained 3.91% in September 2023, 7.29% in September 2024 and 5.16% in September 2025. A positive result in 2026 would extend that run to four years and give the month its longest green streak in the data.
September weakness is not confined to digital assets. The S&P 500 has also recorded an average decline in the month since 1945, although the factors associated with that pattern differ from those affecting Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has since surrendered about 4% of its advance from the September peak. It slipped to around $83,000 on Monday as Brent crude moved back above $100 after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Market picture and what comes next
The available chart levels place the recent Bitcoin move between $74,978 and $87,354, areas identified as potential retracement boundaries. A break below $82,626 would put the next cited support zone between $81,166 and $79,705.
Several technical measures remained positive in the source material. Bitcoin’s Average Directional Index stood at 42.3, above the 25 level commonly used to indicate a strong trend, although the indicator does not identify the trend’s direction. Its Relative Strength Index was 61.2; readings above 70 are generally considered to indicate overbought conditions. The 50-day moving average was also above the 200-day average, a formation often called a golden cross.
A strong September would not erase Bitcoin’s performance for the full year. The cryptocurrency remained approximately 4.4% below the roughly $87,497 level at which it began 2026. The previous year also offers no guarantee about what follows: September 2025’s gain was followed by a 3.69% October decline and a 23% fourth-quarter drop.
The next Federal Reserve meetings listed in the source material are scheduled for Oct. 27-28 and Dec. 8-9. October’s historical average return in the same table is 19.92%, but that past figure does not establish how Bitcoin will perform this year.
Moneyiar market data at 09:39 on Oct. 1, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $83,784.52, up 0.25% over 24 hours and 0.69% over seven days. Monad traded at $0.032064, up 16.64% in 24 hours and 34.42% over seven days. ONEchain was at $0.137134, up 0.30% over 24 hours but down 7.09% over seven days, while RedStone stood at $0.182072, up 9.31% daily and 20.85% weekly.
