Bitcoin climbed to an intraday high of $87,000 on Oct. 2 after buyers broke through a sell wall near $85,000, an area that had stopped several earlier attempts to advance. The move came as a rare accumulation pattern reappeared and visible sell-side liquidity above the market declined, bringing the cryptocurrency closer to a closely watched $90,000-$100,000 zone.
According to CryptoSlate, Glassnode reported that some of the sell orders around $85,000 were filled while the rest were withdrawn. A smaller concentration of asks remained near $87,000, leaving less immediately visible liquidity above Bitcoin. The reduction does not remove the possibility of further selling, but it changes the order-book conditions facing buyers as the market approaches higher resistance levels.
Accumulation signal returns, but its history is limited
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Accumulation Trend chart has also started to show contracting bands. The indicator tracks buying and selling activity among different groups of Bitcoin holders and is used to assess whether supply is being accumulated or distributed. Narrowing bands have appeared before two sharp Bitcoin advances in 2025.
One such contraction occurred between April 17 and April 20, 2025, when Bitcoin traded near $84,000. The cryptocurrency later moved toward $109,000. Another contraction appeared between March 5 and March 8 before a separate advance. Those examples give traders a constructive historical comparison, but they are too few to establish the pattern as a dependable forecasting tool.
The signal is drawing attention because it has emerged alongside an improvement in Bitcoin’s broader cost-basis structure. Bitwise said Bitcoin has recovered several levels that it monitors for a shift toward more risk-on market conditions. These include the short-term holder cost basis near $73,000, a true market mean around $77,000 and the estimated average cost basis for spot exchange-traded fund investors near $83,000.
Bitcoin has also moved through Bitwise’s $85,000 short-term holder realized-price band. Above this area, the firm’s data indicate that gains have historically become more difficult to sustain.
Cost bases and options concentrate resistance near $100,000
The next challenge may come from holders who bought Bitcoin during earlier periods of weakness and are now approaching breakeven. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost estimates that holders who acquired Bitcoin between 18 months and two years ago have an average cost basis of about $88,350. The six-to-12-month group has an average cost basis near $89,200 and has been underwater overall for almost a year.
As prices approach those averages, some investors may choose to sell after months of losses, while others may continue holding or buy more to reduce their average purchase price. The amount of returning supply that buyers can absorb could help determine whether Bitcoin can maintain a move above $90,000.
Bitwise’s valuation measures point to resistance in the same region. The next short-term holder reference level is around $90,000, equivalent to 1.5 standard deviations above realized price. The two-standard-deviation level is near $95,000. Bitcoin has traded above those thresholds on approximately 3.8% and 1.7% of days, respectively, in Bitwise’s historical sample.
A separate Fibonacci framework used by Bitwise places levels near $92,000 and $100,000. Together, these on-chain and technical markers create a concentrated area of potential resistance between $90,000 and $100,000.
Options positioning reflects interest in that same corridor. Deribit data show approximately $2.1 billion in Bitcoin call exposure at the $90,000 strike, $2.4 billion at $95,000 and $1.8 billion at $100,000. Calls provide upside exposure, although their influence on the spot market depends on factors including expiration dates and dealer hedging. The positioning nevertheless shows that substantial amounts have been placed around the levels now drawing market attention.
Leverage rebuilds as rate-hike expectations ease
Bitcoin is approaching this potential supply zone as derivatives activity begins to recover. Open interest fell to around $52 billion as September ended, then rose to roughly $56.2 billion during the first two days of October, according to CoinGlass. Over the same period, Bitcoin advanced from about $83,500 to briefly above $87,000.
The increase indicates that traders are rebuilding positions after reducing exposure toward the end of September. Open interest alone cannot show whether those positions are bullish or bearish, but rising leverage can magnify the effect of a move in either direction. Higher funding rates also make long positions more expensive to maintain and can increase their vulnerability if prices reverse.
The immediate macro backdrop became more supportive after the US employment report showed employers added 29,000 jobs in September, below the 90,000 economists had expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, while August payroll growth was revised lower. Futures markets subsequently put the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at its October meeting below 20%.
Lower Treasury yields and gains in US equities followed the report, removing one near-term source of pressure for Bitcoin. The market’s more direct test now lies in the ability of buyers to absorb supply from breakeven holders while managing rising leveraged exposure.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar market data as of Oct. 3, 2026, at 09:39 +03:30 show Bitcoin at $84,569.71, down 2.04% over 24 hours but up 0.67% over seven days. Bitcoin remains the market-cap leader.
Cardano was at $0.243562, down 4.81% over 24 hours and 4.12% over seven days. Filecoin traded at $1.050837, up 1.52% over 24 hours and down 2.41% over seven days. Walrus stood at $0.034207, down 0.87% over 24 hours and 6.84% over seven days.
