Bitcoin was trading above $86,000 ahead of the latest U.S. employment report, while gains across digital assets and a decline in the market share of Tether’s USDT suggested that traders were becoming more willing to take risk. At the same time, derivatives data showed growing leveraged bullish positioning, leaving the market vulnerable to sharp price swings.
Bitcoin leads a broader crypto advance
Bitcoin rose 3.4% over 24 hours to trade above $86,000 at 9:10 UTC, according to CoinDesk. Ether, XRP, Solana and BNB also moved higher, although their gains were smaller than bitcoin’s. Several large-cap tokens further down the market rankings performed more strongly, with SKY, AAVE and APT gaining between 7% and 10%.
One of the clearest signs of the market’s changing tone was bitcoin dominance. The measure, which represents bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market value, was approaching 60%. Meanwhile, USDT’s share fell to about 6.3%.
USDT is a dollar-pegged stablecoin, a type of crypto asset designed to maintain a value close to one U.S. dollar. A falling share for the token, alongside rising bitcoin dominance, can indicate that capital is moving away from relatively cash-like holdings and into cryptocurrencies with greater price exposure. In this case, the two measures pointed to a market that was becoming more comfortable with risk.
The move came before the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Economists surveyed in FactSet’s consensus estimates expected the U.S. economy to have added 90,000 jobs in September, down from 162,000 in August. The unemployment rate was expected to remain at 4.1%.
Jobs data puts interest rates in focus
For crypto traders, the significance of the employment figures extended beyond the headline jobs number. Markets were watching how the report might affect Treasury yields, particularly inflation-adjusted, or real, yields. Higher yields can make riskier assets less attractive by increasing the return available from government debt.
The payrolls report and the consumer price index report scheduled for October 14 were identified as key events because of their potential effect on longer-dated yields. Oliver Carding, head of marketing at Tesseract Group, said he was monitoring a 10-year real yield of about 3%. He said a sustained move above that level would make a bitcoin retest of $80,000 to $82,000 more likely than a move toward $90,000.
Markets were pricing a 30% probability of a U.S. interest-rate increase in October, down from 70%. The change followed dovish comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams and Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. Lower expectations for a rate increase generally support risk-sensitive assets such as bitcoin.
However, a jobs report that was substantially stronger than expected could revive interest-rate increase bets and put pressure on bitcoin. Observers cited a major upside surprise as the scenario most likely to alter those expectations.
Leverage grows alongside liquidation risk
The derivatives market showed that traders were adding bullish exposure. Bitcoin open interest, which measures the value of outstanding futures and options positions, rose to $22.4 billion from $20.9 billion the previous day. Funding rates were also increasing on some venues, reaching annualized levels of 9% to 10% on Hyperliquid and OKX. The three-month annualized basis on Deribit remained above 6%.
Options activity was also tilted toward calls, contracts that benefit from a rise in the underlying asset. The 24-hour put-to-call ratio was 88% in favor of calls, compared with 83% previously. The one-week 25-delta skew flattened to about 1.5% from around 4%, while the at-the-money volatility curve remained in contango, rising from roughly 27%-28% at the front end to about 40% by late 2027.
The bullish positioning came with a clear warning. Coinglass recorded $344 million in liquidations over 24 hours, up from $100 million the previous day. Long positions accounted for 28% of the total and short positions for 72%. Bitcoin led the liquidations with $132 million, followed by ether at $70 million and other assets at $26 million. Binance’s liquidation heatmap identified $87,400 as a key level to monitor if bitcoin continued higher.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data at 09:04-09:03 on October 3, 2026, showed bitcoin at $84,630.70, down 1.74% over 24 hours but up 0.53% over seven days. Tether USDt was priced at $0.999824, with a 0.01% gain over both 24 hours and seven days.
NEAR Protocol stood at $4.6738, down 5.08% over 24 hours and 3.16% over seven days. ECOMI was priced at $0.0003014, up 1.16% over 24 hours and 30.83% over seven days. These readings provide a later market snapshot than the price levels described in the original report and show that conditions had changed after the initial bitcoin-led advance.
