Bitcoin is on course to finish the third quarter with its strongest quarterly gain since early 2024, while ether is recording its best three-month performance since 2021. The gains come after both assets endured three consecutive losing quarters, even as rising U.S. Treasury yields and changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy continue to shape market sentiment.
Bitcoin and ether rebound after three losing quarters
Bitcoin was trading around $84,000 near the end of the quarter, a level that would imply a gain of roughly 44% for the period, according to figures cited by CoinDesk from Coinglass. That would be bitcoin’s best quarterly result since the first quarter of 2024, when it rose 68.7%.
Ether has delivered an even larger advance. The cryptocurrency gained 70.9% over the three months, putting it on track for its strongest quarter since the first three months of 2021, when it rose 160.7%.
The quarterly performances stand out because they follow three successive quarters of losses for both assets. Bitcoin’s recovery also took place against a difficult backdrop for financial markets, with long-dated U.S. government bond yields reaching levels not seen in more than two decades.
Bitcoin’s historical performance has often been stronger in the final quarter of the year. Since 2013, its average fourth-quarter gain has been 77%, while the median gain has been 47.7%. Those historical figures describe past performance and do not indicate what the market will do next.
Inflation briefly lifts crypto before bond yields reverse the move
A key market catalyst was the latest U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve. The index rose 0.3% in August from the previous month, below the 0.4% forecast. Annual PCE inflation was 3.4%, unchanged from July and below the 3.7% estimate.
Core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.2% monthly and 3% annually. Both readings were below economists’ expectations of 0.3% and 3.3%, respectively.
The softer figures initially pushed bitcoin above $85,500, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.20%. Traders also reduced the probability assigned to an interest-rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s October 28 meeting. CME FedWatch data showed the implied probability falling to 47.1%, from 70% roughly 48 hours earlier.
The relief did not last. Bitcoin later returned toward $84,000 as bond selling resumed. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.30%, its highest level since 2002, while the 30-year yield rose to 5.65%, also a 24-year high. Higher yields can make assets that do not generate interest, such as bitcoin and gold, less attractive relative to bonds and cash.
Bitfinex analysts identified inflation-adjusted Treasury yields as a major headwind for bitcoin. The 10-year real yield rose to 2.83% from 2.68% in the week to September 25, increasing the return available from an inflation-protected government bond.
Holding patterns and demand remain central to the outlook
Glassnode data cited in the report showed that long-term holders accounted for 80% of bitcoin’s supply, an all-time high in its HODL Waves data. The category includes coins that have not moved for at least 155 days. Its share increased from 65% over the past year.
The data suggests that a larger proportion of bitcoin has remained in wallets through the market’s recent downturn. During that period, bitcoin fell from $126,000 to $60,000, according to the source material. Coins that last moved before late April now generally meet the 155-day threshold.
At the same time, CryptoQuant estimated that bitcoin’s spot demand had declined by about 170,000 BTC over the previous 30 days. Growth in futures demand had fallen 90% since September 14. These measures point to a market in which longer-term holding has increased while some sources of fresh demand have weakened.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data recorded at 09:03 on October 1, 2026, showed bitcoin at $83,521.75, up 0.48% over 24 hours but down 0.02% over seven days. Ethereum was priced at $2,685.40, with a 24-hour gain of 0.47% and a seven-day rise of 0.71%.
Among the other assets tracked by Moneyiar, Data Network stood at $0.2137, down 1.49% in 24 hours and 3.15% over seven days. Oasis traded at $0.008795, falling 4.65% over 24 hours but gaining 14.04% over the week.
The latest quarterly gains therefore come alongside a mixed market environment: bitcoin and ether remain well above their recent pre-rally levels, but interest-rate expectations, Treasury yields, energy prices and the pace of crypto demand continue to influence day-to-day trading.
