Bitcoin fell below $81,000 in Asian trading after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data revived concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in October. The move came as investors reassessed the likelihood of tighter monetary policy and reduced exposure to riskier assets, with global stocks also under pressure.
According to CoinDesk, bitcoin was trading about 1% lower since midnight UTC and had declined more than 2% over the previous 24 hours at the time of its report. The cryptocurrency briefly approached $80,000 before recovering to around $81,500, but that rebound lost momentum near $81,000.
Inflation changes the Fed debate
U.S. consumer prices increased 3.7% in the 12 months through September, up from 3.4% in August and above economists’ expectations. Core consumer inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4% a month earlier.
The figures quickly altered market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next decision. On Polymarket, the implied probability of an October rate increase briefly rose to almost 50% after the inflation report, compared with lower levels before the data was released. The probability later eased to about 30%.
CME’s FedWatch tool showed a similar repricing. The implied odds of an October increase initially rose to almost 47% from roughly 22%, before falling to 26% at the time of the report. At the same time, CME Fed funds futures indicated that the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged was above 70%.
The changing expectations reflect uncertainty over how policymakers will respond to inflation that is moving higher. Higher interest rates can reduce the appeal of assets viewed as carrying greater risk because they increase the relative attraction of cash and fixed-income investments. In financial markets, uncertainty about the path of rates can also reduce trading liquidity and investors’ willingness to take positions.
Crypto and stocks move lower
Bitcoin was not alone in retreating. Ether, XRP and Solana fell between 3.5% and 4%, while PYTH was the only cryptocurrency among the top 100 still showing a gain of more than 7% in the source report.
Equity markets also reflected a broader move away from risk. Nasdaq futures were down 1% at the time of reporting, following a 2% decline on Wednesday. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 8% and triggered circuit breakers, mechanisms designed to temporarily halt trading during sharp market moves.
Vikram Subburaj, chief executive of India-based exchange Giottus, said the stronger inflation report had renewed concerns that interest rates could remain higher for longer. He also pointed to fragile institutional demand for digital assets.
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $150.5 million in net outflows on October 14, reversing the previous day’s $175.7 million inflow. Spot bitcoin ETFs hold bitcoin directly and provide investors with market exposure through an exchange-listed product, so their flows are closely watched as an indicator of institutional demand.
Liquidity remains under pressure
Market-making firm STS Digital said the uncertainty surrounding the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting could weigh on liquidity across markets. The firm’s Anderson told CoinDesk that the unclear policy outlook was weakening risk appetite across asset classes. Anderson nevertheless said the Fed would hold rates steady this month, a view consistent with the more than 70% probability of no change reflected in CME futures at the time of reporting.
The market reaction also highlights how closely digital assets are trading in response to broader economic conditions. Anderson said tokens had become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic factors, including energy shocks, volatility in fixed-income markets and sentiment around artificial-intelligence valuations.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar market data at 21:04 on October 15, 2026, showed bitcoin at $82,011.86, up 0.50% over 24 hours and 0.48% over seven days. The data therefore showed bitcoin above the levels cited in the earlier report, although it captured a later point in the session.
Other assets in the Moneyiar data were mixed:
- NEAR Protocol was at $5.2903, up 10.44% over 24 hours and 15.71% over seven days.
- Nesa was at $0.1397, down 4.14% over 24 hours but up 4.52% over seven days.
- Infinity Ground was at $0.1025, down 31.28% over 24 hours and up 48.10% over seven days. Its listed observation time was September 16, 2026, rather than October 15.
The contrasting readings underline the speed at which cryptocurrency prices can change during a session. The immediate market focus remains on inflation, the Federal Reserve’s October decision and whether institutional demand for bitcoin-related products strengthens or weakens further.
