Bitcoin was trading below $84,000 on October 7 as the yield on 10-year US Treasury securities approached 5.3%, highlighting a tougher interest-rate backdrop for speculative assets. Yet Bitcoin has risen sharply since the start of 2024, and available data do not show a simple daily relationship in which higher Treasury yields consistently push the cryptocurrency lower.
According to CryptoSlate, Bitcoin gained 84.2% between January 10, 2024—the day before US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund trading began—and October 5, 2026. Over the same period, the 10-year nominal Treasury yield increased by 127 basis points, while the 10-year real yield rose by 113 basis points. The comparison shows that Bitcoin’s price can rise while government bond yields are also increasing, although it does not establish why Bitcoin gained or attribute the performance to ETFs.
Treasury yields create a stronger alternative
The 10-year nominal par yield stood at 5.27% on October 6, down from 5.31% a day earlier. The October 5 reading was the highest observation in the daily series examined, which stretches back to January 2017. The 10-year real par yield, adjusted for inflation, was 2.91% on October 6, compared with 2.95% the previous day. Its October 5 level was also the highest in the series.
For investors comparing assets, a Treasury yield represents an interest-bearing alternative to assets that do not provide a fixed return. When nominal and real yields rise, investors may demand a stronger potential payoff before accepting the volatility and uncertainty associated with speculative holdings such as Bitcoin.
That does not mean every increase in yields causes Bitcoin to fall. A higher required return can make the investment environment more demanding, but the effect on any single day depends on broader market conditions. The data in the comparison show that the existence of a more attractive yield alternative and the measured short-term relationship between rates and Bitcoin returns are separate issues.
Daily data show limited co-movement
The analysis compared 2,435 matched daily changes from January 2017 through October 5, 2026. It used Bitcoin observations from Coinbase, Treasury yield data from the Federal Reserve Economic Database, and DXY dollar-index observations distributed through Yahoo Finance. DXY refers to the ICE currency index rather than the Federal Reserve’s broad trade-weighted dollar index.
The full comparison found weak linear relationships among Bitcoin returns, changes in nominal Treasury yields, changes in real Treasury yields and dollar-index returns. The post-ETF period produced a similar result: neither Treasury yield measure showed a strong negative daily relationship with Bitcoin returns.
The later sample contained 682 matched daily changes from January 11, 2024, through October 5, 2026. That period begins after the Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product shares on January 10, 2024. BlackRock’s IBIT began trading on Nasdaq the following day. These dates define the comparison window, but the analysis does not isolate the impact of ETF trading.
The observations were matched by date, with missing data excluded rather than estimated. Because markets have different closing times, the comparison did not use synchronized intraday prices. Consecutive observations can also span weekends or holidays.
Monthly results are different, but not conclusive
The relationship changes when the data are viewed monthly. Across 116 complete months from February 2017 through September 2026, the correlation between Bitcoin returns and nominal-yield changes was -0.081. The correlation with real-yield changes was -0.228, while the figure for DXY returns was -0.164.
In the 32 complete post-ETF months from February 2024 through September 2026, the correlations were positive for both yield measures: +0.207 for nominal yields and +0.126 for real yields. The DXY correlation was +0.002, effectively close to zero. October was excluded because it was incomplete.
These figures describe co-movement, not causation or a forecast. The change between daily and monthly results also means the data do not support a broad claim that ETFs insulated Bitcoin from macroeconomic conditions. The relatively small number of post-ETF monthly observations makes it difficult to treat the later shift as evidence of a lasting change.
Earlier research by S&P Global likewise found that crypto’s relationship with interest rates varied over time and did not establish monetary-policy causality. Its different measures of crypto assets and interest rates are not directly comparable with this analysis.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar market data at 09:29 on October 8, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $82,983.19, down 0.98% over 24 hours and 0.87% over seven days. That was below the approximately $83,086 Bitcoin price cited at 14:25 UTC on October 7.
Among the other assets covered by the supplied Moneyiar data, BAS was priced at $0.0227169127, up 0.48% over 24 hours but down 5.47% over seven days. ECOMI was at $0.0002750728, up 2.13% over 24 hours and 6.91% over seven days. RealLink was listed at $0.0100747766, with 24-hour and seven-day declines of 86.56% and 86.35%, respectively; its latest timestamp was September 15, 2026.
