Bitcoin reversed part of a sharp early advance on Friday after a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report initially encouraged traders to expect less pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The cryptocurrency briefly moved above $87,000 before falling back toward $85,300, while Treasury yields also recovered from their initial declines. According to CoinDesk, the market reaction showed how quickly sentiment can change when traders reassess economic data and the possible path of monetary policy.
Weak employment data lifts risk assets
The U.S. economy added 29,000 jobs in September, far below the consensus forecast of 90,000. The unemployment rate increased to 4.2% from 4.1% in August, against expectations that it would remain unchanged.
Earlier employment figures were also revised lower. August’s increase was revised to 133,000 from 162,000, while July’s reported gain of 21,000 was revised to a loss of 10,000 jobs.
Wage growth was weaker than anticipated as well. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in September, below the 0.3% forecast and August’s 0.3% increase. On an annual basis, earnings were up 3%, compared with expectations of 3.2% and August’s 3.1% reading.
The figures suggested a cooling labor market while inflation remains an important consideration for policymakers. For markets, the immediate implication was that the Federal Reserve could have more room to avoid raising interest rates later in October. Rate futures compiled by CME FedWatch showed the implied probability of an October 28 rate increase falling to 13%, from about 25% earlier on Friday and 70% several days earlier.
The market also reduced expectations for a rate increase later in the year. The probability that the Fed would not raise rates for the remainder of 2026 had risen to 25% for the December meeting, compared with less than 10% earlier in the week. September inflation data, however, was still due to be released, leaving another major test for rate expectations.
Bitcoin and bonds reverse their first move
Bitcoin initially rose above $87,000 after the jobs figures were released. Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said the cryptocurrency was testing resistance between $85,000 and $86,000 and identified $90,000, followed by $97,000, as significant levels if the move higher continued. He also pointed to softer economic data and strong spot bitcoin ETF inflows as possible sources of support, as reported in the source material.
The early rally did not last. Bitcoin later shed about $2,000 and was trading near $85,300, still up 1.7% over 24 hours at the time of the report. LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger said weaker employment data could pressure the dollar, reduce the United States’ interest-rate advantage and support risk assets such as bitcoin. He also said lower oil prices could reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy.
Treasury markets followed a similar pattern. The 10-year U.S. yield initially fell as low as 5.15%, while the two-year yield dropped to 4.71%. Selling then pushed the 10-year yield back to 5.26%, up four basis points on the day, and lifted the two-year yield to 4.81%.
The moves illustrated the competing forces facing traders. A weaker labor market can reduce expectations for rate increases, which may support stocks and cryptocurrencies. But investors may also take profits after a rapid rally or remain concerned that upcoming inflation data could still influence the Fed toward tighter policy.
U.S. equities remained relatively strong during the session. The Nasdaq was up 1.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 reached a record high after rising more than 1%. The S&P 500 gained 1% and was less than 1% below its own record.
Oil, inflation and the wider market picture
Oil prices also staged a reversal. Brent crude had fallen as low as $98.44 before French President Emmanuel Macron said the G7 had agreed to release as much as 100 million barrels of diesel fuel and oil from reserves. Brent subsequently climbed to $102.35, about $4 above its low. West Texas Intermediate crude similarly recovered to $91.36 after dropping to $88.
The source material also highlighted a change in Amazon’s pricing during a purchase of AA batteries. Amazon said that prices displayed after an item is added to a cart are not locked and may rise or fall before checkout. The episode was cited as a sign that consumers can encounter price changes even during a single transaction, although it did not establish a broader inflation measure.
Moneyiar market data, recorded at 09:04 on October 3, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $84,630.70, down 1.74% over 24 hours but up 0.53% over seven days. Data Network was at $0.211512, down 1.67% in 24 hours and 6.35% over seven days. RedStone traded at $0.168567, down 2.46% daily and 1.05% weekly, while Nesa stood at $0.147550, down 4.67% over 24 hours and 9.77% over seven days. These are Moneyiar data at the stated time and reflect a later market snapshot than the levels reported immediately after the jobs release.
