Bitcoin started the week under pressure, slipping below $83,000 as developments in the US-Iran conflict weighed on risk assets. Even after the decline, the cryptocurrency remained more than 40% higher for the third quarter, putting it on track for its strongest Q3 performance since 2017.
According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin’s weekly close at $84,450 was its highest since late January, but the market then fell to a one-week low of $82,557. Traders are now watching whether BTC can hold key support while preparing for US inflation and employment figures that could influence expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate policy.
Bitcoin approaches quarter-end with major price levels in focus
Bitcoin is approaching two important closes on Wednesday: the end of September and the end of the third quarter. The timing puts additional attention on price levels that could shape the market’s next move.
The 2026 yearly open is above the market at $88,700, while the estimated average purchase price for investors in US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds is around $86,000. Below the current price, Bitcoin corporate treasuries have a reported cost basis of $80,500. The True Market Mean, which represents the combined cost basis of active investors, is near $76,700.
Recent buyers remain profitable overall. CryptoQuant data cited in the report puts the cost basis for investors who bought Bitcoin between one and four weeks ago at $78,300. This group is generally considered more sensitive to sudden price swings than longer-term holders.
Short-term market liquidity has also limited upward momentum. CoinGlass data showed about $30 million in sell orders concentrated around $85,700 on Monday. The appearance of that liquidity coincided with an acceleration in Bitcoin’s decline, illustrating how order-book positioning can affect price movement over short periods.
Despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin is up just over 40% in Q3. That would make this its best third quarter since 2017, well above its average Q3 return of 8.6% since 2013, according to CoinGlass. The same data shows that Bitcoin’s average fourth-quarter return over that period has been 77%, although historical averages do not determine future performance.
Inflation and employment reports could shift rate expectations
US economic data is likely to be the next major source of volatility. The August Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, is due Wednesday. Expectations cited in the report call for a 3.6% year-on-year increase and a 0.3% monthly rise.
Markets have been increasing their expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase after the central bank raised rates by 0.25 percentage points at its September meeting. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed a 70.3% probability of a further 0.25-point increase at the October meeting as of Monday, up from 57.7% one week earlier.
The rate outlook is important for Bitcoin because expectations for higher interest rates can affect demand for risk-sensitive assets. The market currently expects an October increase, a pause in January and further increases in March, based on the probabilities cited in the report.
The September nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday, will provide another test for those expectations. The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, well above forecasts, while the latest estimate cited for September is 83,000 new jobs.
Geopolitical developments are adding another layer of uncertainty. The possibility of further US strikes on Iran has weighed on US stock futures and cryptocurrencies, while oil prices have also risen. WTI crude returned to $95 a barrel and gained 3% on Monday after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest ceasefire proposal and did not rule out additional military action.
Analysts identify $82,500 as a key Bitcoin level
Bitcoin’s ability to remain above $82,500 is central to one technical analysis of the current recovery. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital is tracking an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, a structure commonly interpreted by technical analysts as a potential bullish reversal formation.
The $82,500 area is being compared with the upper boundary of Bitcoin’s 2022 accumulation pattern. In Rekt Capital’s analysis, holding that level could allow Bitcoin to form a new reaccumulation range above it and strengthen the case that the 2026 bear market has ended.
A sustained break below the level would weaken that interpretation. Rekt Capital said Bitcoin could instead return to the $60,000-$80,000 range and retrace within it if $82,500 fails to become support.
The analysis reflects a market balancing strong quarterly gains against immediate downside risks. Bitcoin’s next direction may depend on a combination of the quarterly close, the reaction to US inflation and jobs data, interest-rate expectations, and developments affecting oil and broader risk sentiment.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data at 22:04 on September 25, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $83,820.0482, down 0.61% over 24 hours but up 3.20% over seven days. Data Network was at $0.2272203508, up 1.11% in 24 hours and 19.31% over seven days. Velo stood at $0.0046824646, up 0.87% and 7.82%, respectively. Ore was priced at $77.5203370551, with a 24-hour gain of 7.72% and a seven-day gain of 12.32%.
