A trader has placed a Bitcoin options position with approximately $68 million in face value on a potential move above $90,000 shortly after the U.S. midterm elections, according to CoinDesk. The trade comes as Bitcoin remains near $80,000 and options markets show a modest increase in the implied odds of a rally to $100,000 by Christmas.
Large call-option position takes shape
On October 20, one wallet bought 800 Bitcoin call options on the decentralized derivatives platform Derive. The contracts have a $90,000 strike price and expire on November 6, shortly after the U.S. midterm elections in early November. Each contract represents one Bitcoin.
Derive told CoinDesk that the position was worth about $68 million in face value at current Bitcoin prices, making it the largest open Bitcoin position on the platform. The face value refers to the amount of Bitcoin represented by the contracts, rather than necessarily the amount paid for the options.
A call option gives its holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy an asset at a predetermined price by a specified date. In this case, the position benefits if Bitcoin rises sufficiently above the $90,000 strike before the November 6 expiry, although the option buyer paid a cost to establish the trade.
The wallet did not simply purchase all 800 calls as a standalone bullish position. To help finance the trade, it sold 400 contracts with a $100,000 strike expiring in March 2027 and another 400 contracts with a $90,000 strike expiring on October 30. After financing, the transaction generated a net amount of about $940,000, according to the source material.
Market-implied odds shift higher
Derive’s options activity also points to a change in market pricing for Bitcoin’s year-end outcomes. The implied probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by Christmas increased to 12%, from 9.7% a week earlier.
At the same time, the implied probability of Bitcoin falling below $70,000 by Christmas declined to 11%, compared with 15.6% a week earlier. These are probabilities inferred from the prices of contracts traded on the platform; they are not guarantees or forecasts of what Bitcoin will ultimately do.
The options positioning stands in contrast to the relatively quiet spot market. Bitcoin was trading around $80,000, while other major digital assets, including ether, XRP, solana, dogecoin and BNB, were also described as subdued.
Derive is identified by DefiLlama as the world’s largest decentralized exchange by notional volume and open interest. However, its market is much smaller than that of centralized derivatives exchange Deribit, which has operated for a decade and records daily trading volume and open interest worth several billion dollars.
Different signals across derivatives venues
Deribit’s near-term 25-delta skew for both Bitcoin and ether was negative. In options-market terminology, that means puts were more expensive than calls at the front end of the curve, suggesting stronger demand for downside protection in those maturities.
The difference matters because the Derive trade represents a large, specifically timed position aimed at a rise above $90,000, while Deribit’s pricing indicates that some traders are still paying a premium to protect against declines. Together, the signals show that bullish bets and defensive positioning are coexisting in the cryptocurrency derivatives market.
The November 6 expiry gives the Derive position a narrow time window around the U.S. election period. Whether the calls become profitable will depend on Bitcoin’s price and the value of the options before expiry; the source material does not establish that the trade reflects a broad market consensus.
Current market picture
Moneyiar market data recorded Bitcoin at $80,430.506808014 on October 25, 2026, at 22:39 local time, with a 24-hour decline of 0.08% and a seven-day decline of 1.32%.
The same Moneyiar data showed Loaded Lions at $0.0011817703, down 2.39% over 24 hours and 3.06% over seven days, as of October 25, 2026, at 22:38 local time. These figures provide a market snapshot alongside the options activity but do not determine the outcome of either the $90,000 or $100,000 Bitcoin scenarios.
