Bitcoin traded modestly higher Thursday as falling U.S. Treasury yields encouraged a tentative recovery in risk assets, while Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said policymakers needed “more time” before deciding on additional rate increases. Investors were also watching signs of stress in French government bonds, firmer oil prices and the U.S. employment report due the following day.
According to CoinDesk, bitcoin was up about 1% over 24 hours at roughly $84,800 during U.S. afternoon trading. The move came after a sharp reversal in bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 9.4 basis points to 5.217%, after reaching 5.36% earlier in the session. The two-year Treasury yield, which is more closely linked to expectations for Federal Reserve policy, declined 12.3 basis points to 4.764%.
The decline in yields reflected a reduction in market expectations for another rate increase. The probability of a Fed move at its Oct. 28 meeting fell to 30%, from 70% earlier in the week. The odds of at least one rate hike by the end of the year dropped to 80%, compared with 95% a week earlier.
Fed official urges caution on rate decisions
In prepared remarks Thursday, Jefferson said Treasury yields had risen across maturities since the Fed’s September meeting, indicating that investors were reassessing the economic and financial outlook. He added that officials would need to reach their own assessment, a process that “may take more time.”
His comments added to signs that traders may have moved too quickly in pricing the pace of future monetary tightening. Higher interest rates can weigh on assets such as bitcoin by increasing the appeal of interest-bearing investments and tightening financial conditions. Conversely, falling yields can ease some of that pressure, although Thursday’s bitcoin advance remained limited.
The economic data did not present a clear picture of cooling activity or easing inflation. Initial U.S. jobless claims declined to 197,000 last week from 198,000, while the four-week average fell to 200,000 from 202,500. Both readings indicated no immediate deterioration in the labor market.
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.5 in September from 54.6, below forecasts for 55. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. New orders improved to 55.3 from 53.7, while the prices-paid subindex climbed sharply to 77.9 from 71.1, exceeding the 72.3 forecast. Survey respondents reported that every commodity had increased in price, with none reported as falling.
Markets were looking ahead to the September nonfarm payrolls report. Economists expected the U.S. economy to have added 90,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%.
French debt stress and higher oil add to market uncertainty
European bond markets provided another source of concern. France’s 10-year government bond yield rose eight basis points, even as Germany’s 10-year Bund yield declined six basis points. The difference between French and German 10-year yields widened to 135 basis points, compared with a range of roughly 50 to 80 basis points in recent years.
Credit-default-swap spreads on French bonds reached a 13-year high, while the euro fell 0.9% against the dollar to $1.1231, its weakest level in about five months. These moves pointed to increased investor concern around French sovereign debt, though the source material did not identify a specific trigger for the market deterioration.
Oil prices also moved higher after reports that the Trump administration was sending a third aircraft carrier and an additional Marine unit to the Middle East, citing a U.S. official. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.5% to $92.63 a barrel after earlier trading below $89, while Brent crude gained 3.6% to $101.53.
Crypto performance and security incident
Bitcoin gained 42.7% in the third quarter, its strongest quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2024, when it rose 68.7%. Ether advanced 70.8% in the third quarter, its best result since the first quarter of 2021. At the start of the fourth quarter, both cryptocurrencies were described as broadly flat, with bitcoin just below $84,000 and ether slightly above $2,700.
Elsewhere in the digital-asset market, the NEAR token fell 9% after a reported $3.8 million exploit involving NEAR Intents. The project temporarily halted services, saying the incident resulted from a bug involving the interaction between its Omni deposit and withdrawal infrastructure and the NEAR Intents smart contract. The team said the contract vulnerability had been patched and that operations were expected to resume within an hour.
Bond-market moves remained central to the broader backdrop. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 53 basis points in September, its largest monthly increase since September 2022. Despite that jump, the S&P 500 slipped only 0.45% during the month, while bitcoin rose 6.3%.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data recorded bitcoin at $84,630.70 as of Oct. 3, 2026, 09:04 +03:30. The cryptocurrency was down 1.74% over the previous 24 hours but remained up 0.53% over seven days.
Moneyiar also showed Infinity Ground, or AIN, at $0.102529 as of Sept. 16, 2026, 01:39 +03:30. AIN was down 31.28% over 24 hours while still showing a 48.1% gain over seven days. These figures are Moneyiar market data recorded at the stated times.
