Bitcoin moved higher after a much weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report sharply reduced market expectations for another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in October. The world’s largest cryptocurrency traded at $86,152.75 in the report, close to its September high, as investors assessed whether easier monetary-policy expectations could help push it through a key technical resistance level.
The U.S. economy added 29,000 jobs in September, well below economists’ forecast of 84,000, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. Job gains reported for the two preceding months were also revised lower by a combined 60,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data indicated a cooling labor market and changed how traders viewed the Fed’s next policy decision.
According to Decrypt, the probability of an October rate increase implied by CME FedWatch fell to about 14%, down from 70% earlier in the week. Kalshi, Polymarket and Myriad also put the odds of the central bank leaving rates unchanged at 80% for its October 28 meeting.
Why the jobs report matters for Bitcoin
Interest-rate expectations are important for assets such as Bitcoin because higher borrowing costs can reduce the availability of money flowing into investments considered riskier. A weaker employment report can have the opposite effect if markets interpret it as reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates.
The Fed raised its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point on September 16, taking its target range to 3.75%-4.00%. It was the first increase since 2023. Since that decision, Fed officials have signaled that another move may not be urgent. New York Fed President John Williams said there was “no need for urgency,” while Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said policymakers might need more time before deciding whether to raise rates again.
Bitcoin rose 1.57% on the day covered by the report, opening at $84,824.05 and reaching an intraday high of $87,173.15. Its low was $84,492.18. At $86,152.75, the cryptocurrency was near the upper end of its recent range and roughly 1.4% below the September high of $87,354.33.
The broader crypto market also strengthened in the source report. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization exceeded $3 trillion, up 2.5% over 24 hours. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 71, a reading classified as “greed,” while daily exchange-traded fund flows were positive at $102 million. Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market was 59.1%.
Technical picture points to a test of resistance
Bitcoin’s September peak represents the main level bulls need to overcome to confirm a move beyond the current range. The price had previously climbed from a swing low of $74,977.57 to the September high, a 16.5% advance, before moving largely sideways near that level.
Several indicators in the report supported the case for continued upward momentum. The Average Directional Index, which measures trend strength rather than direction, stood at 41.8. A reading above 25 is generally used to identify a meaningful trend, and Bitcoin’s positive directional line was above the negative line, indicating that buyers remained stronger than sellers.
The 50-day exponential moving average was above the 200-day average, another constructive configuration because it shows more recent prices outperforming the longer-term trend. The chart’s green cloud beneath the price had remained in place since mid-August, providing a technical support area in the analysis.
Momentum indicators also showed strength, although they pointed to a market that was becoming more extended. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index was 68.1 on a scale of zero to 100, close to the 70 level often associated with overbought conditions. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator was no longer active and had a positive reading of 2.2, suggesting that the earlier period of price compression had released upward. Bitcoin was positioned at 78.4% of its band range, in the upper half.
Market picture: Moneyiar data
Moneyiar market data recorded at 09:24 on October 3, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $84,589.68, down 1.79% over 24 hours but up 0.71% over seven days. The figures differ from the price cited in the earlier report because they were recorded at a later time.
Other assets in the Moneyiar snapshot showed mixed performance:
- Cronos was $0.0661511449, down 3.93% over 24 hours and up 1.31% over seven days.
- JUST was $0.1361981893, up 5.43% over 24 hours and 10.97% over seven days.
- Nexus was $0.0000008348, down 1.51% over 24 hours and 0.53% over seven days, based on data recorded at 09:23.
What traders are watching next
The technical structure remained bullish in the report, but it was not without risks. The RSI was close to the level where profit-taking can emerge, while elevated yields and expectations of a December rate increase meant the broader policy backdrop was not entirely supportive.
A daily close above $87,354, together with continued strength in the ADX, would be important to traders assessing whether Bitcoin had broken through resistance rather than merely tested it. The Federal Reserve’s October 28 meeting was identified as the next major macroeconomic event for markets.
The analysis describes market indicators and reported expectations; it does not constitute investment advice.
