Bitcoin began the week near $86,000 after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. At the same time, technical indicators showed the cryptocurrency entering a second, potentially stronger golden cross, while spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds continued to attract money.
Weak jobs data changes the rate outlook
Bitcoin traded around $86,100 on Monday, gaining 1.14% over 24 hours and reaching a market capitalization of $1.73 trillion. However, it remained below the $87,354 swing high that has limited the latest advance.
The immediate catalyst was the U.S. employment report for September. Employers added 29,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, about one-third of the number economists had expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%.
Earlier figures were also revised lower. July’s reported increase of 21,000 jobs was revised to a loss of 10,000, and August’s gain was reduced from 162,000 to 133,000.
The report affected expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The central bank raised its benchmark interest-rate range by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16. Before the jobs report, bond traders had assigned a 64% probability to an October rate increase. After the report, that estimate fell to between roughly 16% and 22%, depending on the market snapshot.
Lower expectations for interest-rate increases can support risk-sensitive assets because higher rates generally make cash and bonds relatively more attractive and can tighten financial conditions. The market response was also visible in equities: the S&P 500 rose 0.73% on Friday to 7,722.72, the Nasdaq gained 1.19% to 27,190.86, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.49% to 51,176.96.
The reaction contrasted with September 4, when a stronger-than-expected August employment report lifted rate-hike expectations and Bitcoin fell more than 2%, briefly trading near $79,300. Bitcoin is now about 8% above that level.
According to Decrypt, the broader crypto market was valued at $2.94 trillion on Monday, up 1.36% on the day. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 68, indicating “greed” and showing more stable sentiment after readings moved down from “extreme greed” the previous month.
A second technical confirmation appears
Bitcoin’s daily chart offered another reason for optimism, although the price still needs to overcome the $87,354 level. The Relative Strength Index was 64.7. This indicator compares recent gains and losses on a scale from 0 to 100; readings above 70 are commonly viewed as overbought. Bitcoin’s reading therefore showed strong momentum without reaching that threshold.
The Average Directional Index, which measures the strength of a trend rather than whether it is rising or falling, stood at 43.4. Readings above 25 are generally associated with a strong trend.
The more significant development involved exponential moving averages, or EMAs. These track average prices over specific periods while giving greater weight to recent trading. A golden cross occurs when a shorter-term average moves above a longer-term average and is commonly viewed as a sign of improving momentum.
Bitcoin’s 50-day EMA had already moved above its 200-day EMA in mid-September. Now, the 100-day EMA has also crossed above the 200-day EMA. This second configuration is considered stronger because the 100-day average responds more slowly than the 50-day average. For it to move above the 200-day average, Bitcoin generally needs to remain at elevated levels for longer.
The two crossings mean that both the shorter- and medium-term averages are above the long-term average. That suggests Bitcoin has done more than stage a brief rebound from levels below $60,000 in July and has rebuilt its medium-term trend.
There is an important limitation: moving averages are lagging indicators. A golden cross confirms that a substantial move has already taken place; it does not predict the next price move or guarantee that the advance will continue.
ETF flows and the next market tests
Demand through U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs also remained positive. The latest daily reading showed net inflows of $189.84 million, while total net assets reached $101.1 billion, according to Decrypt data.
Among major alternative cryptocurrencies, Ethereum was at $2,711, up 0.59%, and XRP stood at $1.51, up 0.81%. Solana was lower at $120.31, down 0.91%. Hyperliquid was the strongest mover among the figures reported, rising 3.68% over 24 hours to $93.17 and gaining 6% over the week.
Traders on Myriad, a prediction market operated by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, were leaning toward further short-term gains. The market assigned an 80% probability to Bitcoin touching $87,500 during October, 59% to $90,000, 25% to $95,000 and 12% to $100,000. These figures describe prediction-market positioning, not a forecast or assurance of future prices.
The next major policy-related events include the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its September meeting, scheduled for October 7 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September consumer-price report on October 14. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for October 27-28, followed by a press conference on October 28 at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data at 10:39 a.m. on October 7 showed Bitcoin at $83,675.73, down 2.70% over 24 hours and 0.19% over seven days. TRON was at $0.333184, down 0.83% in 24 hours and 1.59% over the week.
Cronos traded at $0.063255, falling 7.31% over 24 hours and 6.68% over seven days. JUST was the exception among the assets listed, at $0.139778, up 1.75% on the day and 8.65% over the week.
