Bitcoin’s summer recovery is facing a more cautious market backdrop, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index falling to 56 on Monday from 67 a week earlier and 82 on Aug. 26. The move into neutral territory came as Bitcoin declined from last week’s high and investors confronted higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields and weaker flows into crypto funds.
Sentiment retreats from extreme greed
The Fear and Greed Index is a 0-to-100 measure of market appetite. Lower readings indicate fear, while higher readings signal greater willingness to take risk. A reading of 56 is classified as neutral, a notable change from the “extreme greed” recorded in late August.
The index reached 82 on Aug. 26, its highest level of the year, and stood at 68 a month ago. According to Decrypt, the latest decline suggests that traders have become more cautious after a powerful August rally helped lift Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market out of a prolonged downturn.
Bitcoin reached $86,978 early last week before falling to $81,749.83 on Oct. 8, a decline of roughly 6%. It later recovered to about $83,800 on Monday, but remained around 34% below its all-time high of more than $126,000, reached on Oct. 6, 2025.
The retreat contrasts with the strength seen in August, when Bitcoin gained 24.9%. That rally prompted market figures including Fundstrat co-founder and Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee and CryptoQuant’s Kim Yong Yu to say the bear market had ended. The latest price action and sentiment readings show that confidence in crypto trades has cooled, at least temporarily.
Fund flows and macro pressure
Investor flows into crypto funds have also weakened. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $484.9 million in net outflows on Wednesday last week, their largest one-day loss since June, followed by another $244.1 million outflow on Thursday. A $21.1 million inflow on Friday reduced the weekly damage, but the funds still had a net outflow of $386.3 million for October.
Ethereum funds had a separate negative streak, extending their outflows to nine consecutive days and recording $635 million in withdrawals during October.
The pressure has not been limited to digital assets. Brent crude rose above $101 a barrel last week as attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz increased. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.70%, its highest level since 2002. Stocks, gold and Bitcoin all sold off on the same day, a pattern that points to a broader macroeconomic move rather than an isolated cryptocurrency problem.
Brent was trading near $110 a barrel in the source report, even after President Donald Trump said the United States would not engage in war at least until November. Oil is a major input for transport, manufacturing, agriculture and travel. A sustained increase in crude prices can add to consumer-price pressure, making it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates and increasing the possibility of rate increases, according to the account of the central bank’s latest minutes.
Higher inflation expectations can also push bond yields higher because investors seek compensation for the reduced purchasing power of fixed Treasury payments. As the benchmark return generally considered “risk-free,” a 30-year Treasury yield of 5.70% can make riskier assets less attractive while increasing borrowing costs. Bitcoin produces no yield and often trades as a risk asset alongside stocks, leaving it vulnerable when yields and interest-rate expectations rise.
Prediction-market odds turn lower
Trading activity on Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, reflects the more defensive mood. Traders assign a 45% probability to Bitcoin reaching $87,500 in October, down from 55% on Oct. 7. The odds of a move to $90,000 have fallen to 28% from 36% over the same period.
The market is also pricing a 56% chance that Bitcoin falls to $80,000 in October. The probability of a decline to $77,500 is 33%, while the odds of reaching $75,000 stand at 20%.
Moneyiar market data at 09:59 on Oct. 13 showed Bitcoin at $83,498.18, up 0.05% over 24 hours but down 2.88% over seven days. The figures indicate that Bitcoin had stabilized somewhat from its recent low, although its weekly performance remained negative.
