Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 after a sharp increase in US producer inflation intensified pressure across cryptocurrency markets, triggering $939.24 million in liquidations for 176,506 traders. The decline also weakened expectations for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by Christmas, while options positioning pointed to further volatility around the $78,000-$95,000 range.
Inflation shock adds to pressure on Bitcoin
Bitcoin reached an intraday low of $79,730 before recovering to about $82,000. The move came after US producer prices rose 1.3% in September, the largest monthly increase since March 2022. Annual producer inflation accelerated to 6.3%, its highest level in almost four years.
Core producer prices, which exclude food and energy, increased 0.7% during the month, compared with expectations for a 0.3% rise. The annual core rate reached 5%. The figures followed a consumer inflation reading of 3.7% on Wednesday, adding to concern that price pressures were spreading beyond the energy market.
Energy prices alone rose 10.8% in September. Higher energy costs can increase expenses across transportation, manufacturing and distribution, leaving businesses to absorb the impact through lower margins or pass it on to customers. That dynamic could keep inflation elevated and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to shift toward easier monetary policy.
The inflation data also produced a mixed reaction in traditional markets. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell to about 5.06%, as investors sought government bonds during a selloff in technology stocks. Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian linked the move partly to defensive positioning, as well as concerns about technology investment, credit conditions and high borrowing costs.
Liquidations rise as traders reassess rate risks
According to CryptoSlate, CoinGlass data showed that 176,506 traders were liquidated during the selloff, with total losses of $939.24 million. The largest individual liquidation was a $12 million BTC-USDT position on Binance.
The market response reflected uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next decision. Futures markets had briefly priced in almost a 50% chance of an interest-rate increase after the consumer inflation report. Following the producer-price data, that probability fell below 30%, although the latest figures still strengthened the case for additional tightening in the view of some market participants.
Can-Luca Köymen, an investment strategist at digital-asset bank Sygnum, said the 0.7% core producer-price increase reinforced the consumer inflation signal and made an October 28 rate increase a realistic risk rather than a remote possibility.
The change in expectations was also visible in crypto derivatives. Derive founder Nick Forster said the implied probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 by the Friday expiry rose to 18.4%, from 9.5% a day earlier. At the same time, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by Christmas declined to 9.7%, from 12.5%.
Ethereum’s probability of exceeding $3,000 by Christmas also fell to 14%. Derive recorded $129 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum options volume during the three hours after the consumer inflation release, twelve times the volume in the preceding three hours.
One trader paid $151,000 for a Bitcoin put spread covering 500 BTC, representing approximately $41 million in underlying exposure. The trade could produce a maximum net profit of $849,000 if Bitcoin falls below $78,000 by Friday morning, according to Forster. Other traders reduced longer-term bullish positions, including a sale involving 1,293 ETH March 2027 call spreads.
Options expiries put focus on $78,000 and $95,000
Bitcoin’s $80,000 area has become a key reference point as two sizeable options expiries approach. Friday’s expiry includes about $1.3 billion in positions, with substantial put exposure concentrated between $76,000 and $80,000.
The larger expiry is scheduled for October 30. Around 140,000 BTC options contracts, valued at nearly $12 billion, are due to expire then. That amount represents roughly one-third of the outstanding Bitcoin options positions on Deribit.
About 25,000 BTC in call options are concentrated at the $95,000 strike. If Bitcoin rises toward that level, traders who sold those calls may need to buy Bitcoin or related exposure to manage their positions, potentially adding to price movement. The month-end options book also has a maximum-pain level near $78,000, where derivatives positioning is heavily concentrated.
Attention is now turning to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who is scheduled to speak at the International Monetary Fund’s meetings in Bangkok at 11:30 p.m. Eastern on Thursday. His remarks are due just before the Federal Reserve’s communications blackout and shortly ahead of Friday’s Bitcoin options expiry, giving traders another potential source of market direction.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data at 9:39 p.m. local time on October 15 showed Bitcoin at $82,232.39, up 0.50% over 24 hours and 0.67% over seven days. Cardano was $0.2306, up 0.65% over 24 hours but down 1.37% over seven days. TRON stood at $0.3321, down 0.14% over 24 hours and 0.17% over seven days.
NEAR Protocol was $5.3285, rising 10.15% over 24 hours and 17.67% over seven days. These figures indicate that Bitcoin had recovered from its session low by the time of the Moneyiar snapshot, even as derivatives markets remained positioned around the possibility of another test of lower levels.
