Bitcoin held close to $80,400 on Monday after briefly falling to about $79,300 during Asian trading, as markets looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday. The cryptocurrency was little changed from midnight UTC, while traders also assessed weaker oil prices, recent spot bitcoin ETF outflows and shifting derivatives positioning.
According to CoinDesk, ether was down 0.2%, while the DeFi index was the only CoinDesk market index to record a gain. Uniswap and Ethena rose despite a weekend disclosure from Arthur Hayes that his Maelstrom fund had sold its entire directional book, including 6,400 ether, citing macroeconomic and geopolitical risk.
Fed decision and broader market signals
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September and is due to announce its next decision on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool put the probability of no change at 90%, while the likelihood of another increase in December stood at about 80%.
That decision is a key near-term event for crypto markets because interest rates influence the cost of leverage and the appeal of riskier assets. The source material does not indicate what the Fed will ultimately decide, but the probability readings show that markets are largely positioned for rates to remain unchanged this week.
U.S. stock futures pointed to a partial recovery after Friday’s selloff, with S&P 500 futures up around 0.3%. Oil prices moved in the opposite direction. U.S. crude fell about 2% to near $101 a barrel, while Brent declined to around $110.
The oil retreat followed the arrival of Qatari mediators in Tehran on Sunday and President Donald Trump’s statement that there would be no strike that day, although he kept the option open. The material does not establish a longer-term direction for energy prices or crypto markets, but the moves provided an important backdrop for Monday’s trading.
Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds were also in focus. The funds recorded $138 million in outflows on Friday, bringing withdrawals over two days to $772 million, according to Farside Investors. ETF flows are closely watched because they provide a measure of investor demand through regulated market vehicles that hold or track bitcoin.
Derivatives show limited changes in positioning
Crypto futures activity was relatively subdued. Open interest, the total value of outstanding derivatives contracts, increased 0.85% over 24 hours to $139.9 billion, while trading volume fell 1.78%. Liquidations dropped 71% to $153 million. The long-to-short taker volume split was almost even at 50.34% to 49.66%, offering no clear directional bias.
Bitcoin’s price rose 0.20% as open interest increased 0.84%, while volume dropped 7.21%. Ether showed a similar pattern: its price gained 0.23% and open interest rose 0.45%. Funding rates were mildly positive across major cryptocurrencies, indicating that traders holding leveraged long positions were paying only modest amounts and that there was no heavily crowded position.
Some individual markets were more active. Zcash open interest rose 8.17% as its price advanced 3.84%, with volume increasing 19.11%. Ethena’s open interest climbed 16.85% during an 8.36% price gain, while volume surged 81.51%. However, open interest in ENA fell 2.04% over the most recent hour, suggesting that some positions opened during the rally had begun to leave.
Crude was the only top-20 market with negative funding. Its perpetual futures price fell 1.55%, open interest declined 7.37% and volume jumped 190.88%. Remaining positions leaned short.
Bitcoin and ether options retain downside protection bias
Options activity continued to show stronger demand for downside protection than for upside exposure, although the gap narrowed. Bitcoin’s busiest contract was the Oct. 28 $77,000 put, followed by the Oct. 28 $84,000 call. One-month put skew fell to about 12.5% from roughly 14.5%, meaning puts still cost more than calls but by a smaller margin than the previous day.
Ether options showed a similar pattern. Four of the six most active contracts were puts, led by the Oct. 29 $2,000 strike. One-week skew declined to about 8.7% from 13.3%, while puts remained more expensive than calls.
In token markets, Uniswap rose 1.9% and Ethena gained about 1%, despite Maelstrom’s reported sale of 323,000 UNI and 14 million ENA on Saturday. AI-linked tokens were weaker: Grass fell 2.7% and Near declined 1.4%. Hyperliquid rose around 1% as traders continued to assess Hyperliquid Strategies’ decision to more than triple its share buyback to $100 million; the program applies to PURR stock, not directly to the HYPE token. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season index fell to 53 from 58 on Friday.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data recorded at around 10:38-10:39 p.m. local time on Oct. 25 showed Bitcoin at $80,430.51, down 0.08% over 24 hours and 1.32% over seven days. NEAR Protocol was priced at $4.6167, up 3.36% in 24 hours but down 6.21% over seven days.
Lighter stood at $3.1819, down 1.45% over 24 hours and up 5.12% over seven days. Midnight was priced at $0.03695, with a 24-hour decline of 1.77% and a seven-day decline of 6.90%. These figures are Moneyiar market data at the stated time and may differ from prices reported elsewhere because of timing and market-source differences.
