Bitcoin is trading below the estimated $77,700 cost basis of investors who bought the cryptocurrency one to three months ago, raising the possibility that a level that previously provided support could become resistance. The shift comes as recent buyers’ profitability deteriorates and Bitcoin approaches another important threshold tied to short-term holders.
According to Cointelegraph, onchain data from analytics platform CryptoQuant shows BTC has fallen beneath the realized price for the one-to-three-month buyer group. The realized price represents the average price at which coins in a defined investor cohort last moved onchain and is used as an estimate of that group’s aggregate cost basis.
The cohort is viewed as particularly sensitive to short-term price movements because it consists of relatively recent market participants. During rising Bitcoin markets, its cost basis has historically acted as a support level. Once the market price drops below that level, however, investors holding losses may decide to sell if Bitcoin returns to their entry price. That can turn the former support into resistance.
$77,700 emerges as a potential resistance level
CryptoQuant’s Trader Onchain Realized Price Bands put the one-to-three-month cohort’s cost basis at $77,700. The source analysis said Bitcoin was trading at about $76,500 when the level was breached, after remaining above it since Aug. 19.
The move means recent buyers, considered speculative traders in the analysis, are now collectively below breakeven. If the price later climbs back toward $77,700, some of those holders could seek to exit around their original purchase price. This is the mechanism through which an onchain cost basis can become a resistance area, rather than a conventional technical resistance level based on previous market highs or lows.
CryptoQuant also noted that the cohort’s Trader Realized Price had been rising steadily while Bitcoin was correcting. As a result, the distance between the market price and the estimated cost basis had narrowed substantially before the downside break.
The next lower band highlighted in the data is $68,400. It represents an aggregate loss of 12% for the same buyer group. Bitcoin last moved below that band at the beginning of June, then traded as much as 12.6% beneath it during the following month.
Short-term holders approach breakeven
A second cost-basis measure is also drawing attention. Bitcoin’s broader short-term-holder cohort had a realized price of $75,832 as of Tuesday, according to the source material. Short-term holders are defined here as entities that have held their Bitcoin for no more than 155 days.
At the time of the analysis, the cohort’s Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, ratio stood at 1.012. The metric compares the current market value of coins held by the group with their realized value, based on the prices at which those coins last moved onchain. A reading above 1 indicates that the group, in aggregate, remains above its realized cost, while a move below the breakeven level would indicate an overall loss.
The $75,832 realized price has served as a support reference during advances and may also act as resistance during a failed recovery. CryptoQuant identified an MVRV reading of 0.85 as the next major psychological level if Bitcoin falls below the short-term-holder breakeven point. The analysis described that zone as potential “tactical capitulation” or a “short trap.”
The source noted that Bitcoin last dropped through the 0.85 MVRV level at the start of June and recovered it in mid-August. The data does not establish that the same pattern will repeat; it identifies the level as a historical area watched by market analysts.
Current market picture
Moneyiar market data at 13:09:48 on Nov. 3, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $77,201.51, down 0.58% over 24 hours and 3.56% over seven days. That price is below the $77,700 cost basis cited for one-to-three-month buyers, while remaining above the $75,832 realized price for short-term holders.
Other assets in the Moneyiar snapshot were also lower. Monad was priced at $0.0172977067, down 6% in 24 hours and 19.86% over seven days. Ethereum Name Service stood at $4.8555153539, with declines of 0.44% and 5.15% over the same periods. RealLink was listed at $0.0100747766, down 86.56% over 24 hours and 86.35% over seven days; its Moneyiar timestamp was Sept. 15, 2026, at 07:04:00.
