Bitcoin began October near $83,823 as traders entered the cryptocurrency market’s traditionally strong “Uptober” period, but the rally is facing resistance below $84,433 and a less supportive macroeconomic backdrop. According to Decrypt, technical indicators point to a strong upward trend, while prediction-market pricing suggests traders remain cautious about how far the move can go.
Bitcoin starts October with momentum, but resistance remains
Bitcoin gained 0.28% on the day to trade at $83,823 at the start of October. The cryptocurrency had risen 7.33% through most of September, briefly putting the month on course to exceed its previous September record of 7.29% set in 2024. A late-month correction reduced September’s final gain to 6.33%, nevertheless keeping the month in positive territory.
October is known in crypto markets as “Uptober” because of its historically strong performance. Since 2013, October has produced an average return of 19.92% for crypto investors and a median return of 14.71%, according to the data cited in the report. The pattern is not guaranteed: October 2025 ended with a 3.69% loss, making it only the third negative October since 2013.
Bitcoin’s daily trading range at the time of the report extended from $83,134.08 to $84,360.88, after opening at $83,588.27. The coin remained below $84,433, with its price still in a pullback from a swing high of $87,354.33. That high followed a rebound from $74,977.57.
Technical measures nevertheless described buyers as being in control. Bitcoin’s Average Directional Index stood at 41.5, well above the 25 level commonly used to indicate a meaningful trend, while its positive directional line remained above the negative line. The 50-day exponential moving average was also above the 200-day average, another indication that the shorter-term trend was stronger.
The Relative Strength Index was 61.8. The indicator suggested positive buying momentum without reaching the 70 level often associated with an overbought market. Meanwhile, the Squeeze Momentum Indicator was off and Bollinger Bands were widening, pointing to a release of previously compressed volatility.
Higher rates create a tougher backdrop
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on Sept. 16, taking the target range to 3.75%-4%. It was the first increase since July 2023, and the decision was unanimous. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remained elevated, while the central bank’s median projection indicated one further 25-basis-point increase this year. The next Federal Reserve decision is scheduled for Oct. 28.
Higher interest rates can weigh on assets such as Bitcoin because they make cash and government bonds relatively more attractive. The 10-year Treasury yield ended September at 5.289%, and the 30-year yield reached 5.632%; both were 52-week highs. Bitcoin does not pay interest, so higher Treasury yields can increase the competition for capital.
Equity markets also weakened as yields climbed. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both recorded monthly losses in September. A more supportive inflation reading offered some relief: August personal consumption expenditures inflation came in at 3.4% year over year, below the 3.7% forecast, while core inflation was 3.0% compared with expectations of 3.3%.
ETF flows and prediction markets show caution
Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds recorded approximately $3.08 billion of inflows over nine consecutive days through Sept. 29. That run ended on Sept. 30 with $148.69 million in net outflows, according to Decrypt’s Bitcoin ETF tracker. Total net assets stood above $101 billion, although totals can differ by several billion dollars depending on the tracking source.
The week beginning Sept. 21 attracted about $2.4 billion, including a single day with $999 million of inflows. The following week had recorded net outflows of $51.42 million at the time of the report.
On Myriad, a prediction market operated by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan, traders assigned a 90% probability to Bitcoin reaching $85,000. The market gave a 70% chance of a move to $87,500. In a separate market, traders placed only 7% odds on Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high before 2027—an increase of roughly 50% from the level discussed in the report.
The October calendar includes several events that could influence market sentiment: the September jobs report on Oct. 2, Federal Open Market Committee minutes on Oct. 7, consumer price index data on Oct. 14 and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Oct. 28. Myriad’s October market is scheduled to close on Oct. 31 at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data at 09:34 on Oct. 3, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $84,582.719508656, down 2.03% over 24 hours but up 0.66% over seven days. TRON stood at $0.335905315, up 0.4% in 24 hours and down 0.28% over seven days.
Monad traded at $0.0313763463, down 6.19% over 24 hours and up 19.35% over seven days. Ontology was at $0.0606464648, up 1.02% over 24 hours and 1.35% over seven days, according to Moneyiar data recorded at 09:33 on Oct. 3, 2026.
