Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan argues that Bitcoin could emerge stronger whether artificial intelligence produces an economic boom, triggers a major downturn or delivers a more ordinary period of growth. His investor note presents the cryptocurrency as an asset that may benefit from very different macroeconomic paths, although he also acknowledges sharp declines and risks unrelated to the economic cycle.
Three possible paths for AI
According to Decrypt, Hougan compared the current investment landscape with “Choose Your Own Adventure” books, in which different decisions can lead readers toward the same conclusion. He said the range of possible macroeconomic outcomes is unusually wide, with views ranging from AI doubling economic output to AI causing an extreme social and economic disruption.
In his first scenario, AI creates what he called “superabundance.” Productivity would surge and work based on intelligence would become cheaper. Hougan’s argument is that increased abundance could make genuinely scarce assets more valuable, because they cannot be reproduced in unlimited quantities. He included waterfront property, gold and Bitcoin in that category.
A second possibility is that the AI investment boom collapses and causes a recession resembling the 2008 financial crisis. Hougan said Bitcoin could initially fall alongside other risk assets. However, he argued that governments would then be highly likely to provide a bailout and expand the money supply. He put the likelihood of such support at “nearly 100%,” citing the scale of AI infrastructure investment in the United States. In his view, that response would create the kind of monetary environment for which Bitcoin was designed.
The third outcome is less dramatic: economic growth of roughly 3% alongside interest rates of about 4%. Under that scenario, Hougan said Bitcoin could continue benefiting from exchange-traded fund flows, growing use among financial advisers, and allocations by companies and governments. Rising government debt would also remain part of the backdrop. His summary was that Bitcoin can benefit simply by continuing to gain acceptance and appear in more portfolios and balance sheets.
Risks behind the bullish case
Hougan did not suggest that Bitcoin would rise continuously. He pointed to the cryptocurrency’s roughly 50% fall over several days during the COVID-19 panic in 2020, followed by a rebound of about 20 times, as an example of the volatility investors may face.
He also said the thesis could fail for reasons outside the normal macroeconomic debate. Potential threats he identified included a coordinated government crackdown and quantum computing attacks on older Bitcoin wallets. Researchers continue to debate whether artificial intelligence could undermine crypto-related encryption before quantum computers become capable of doing so.
His broader conclusion was that long-term investors may need to place less weight on the precise direction of the economy than is commonly assumed, because his three scenarios all point toward possible support for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin market picture
Moneyiar data at 21:24 on October 15, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $82,209.000837532, up 0.61% over 24 hours and 0.68% over seven days.
At 21:23, Moneyiar data showed Telcoin at $0.0017751456, up 0.64% in 24 hours but down 3.17% over seven days. SuperVerse was $0.2036595274, up 1.25% daily and down 8.56% weekly, while FUNToken was $0.0082366079, down 6.17% over 24 hours and 5.86% over seven days.
