Brazilian companies moved heavily into dollar-linked crypto assets around election day, using stablecoins and bitcoin as a way to reduce exposure to the real while traditional markets were closed. Trading on Mercado Bitcoin was dominated by corporate accounts after incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated Flávio Bolsonaro in an outcome that had surprised prediction markets.
Corporate accounts drive election-day crypto surge
Corporate customers accounted for 78% of Sunday’s trading volume on Mercado Bitcoin, while retail traders represented 22%, the exchange said. Companies traded USDT, Tether’s dollar-pegged stablecoin, and bitcoin in unusually large amounts as they sought to hedge the currency risk facing their treasuries.
USDT trading on the exchange increased nearly 800% from the previous Sunday and rose to more than three times the average recorded over the four preceding Sundays. Bitcoin volume climbed 865% compared with the previous Sunday. Mercado Bitcoin said some corporate clients hold as much as 15% of their assets on its platform.
The activity reflected concern over the implications of Lula’s return to office. His platform included higher social spending and a ban on online betting that would reduce tax income. Investors were also focused on rising debt, new spending commitments and the limited room for further tax increases, all of which could make Brazil’s fiscal position more difficult to manage.
Pedro Fontes, a research analyst at Mercado Bitcoin, said stablecoins such as USDT and USDC offered a way to hold part of a company’s assets in dollars, including through relatively small transactions. He also pointed to the possibility that a stronger opposition in Congress could make fiscal reforms harder to achieve.
The move into crypto came before the sharp reaction in conventional markets. On Monday, Brazil’s benchmark Ibovespa index fell 14%, its worst daily performance since March 2020. The dollar gained more than 8% against the real, its biggest one-day increase since 1999.
Crypto trading spreads beyond one exchange
The jump was not limited to Mercado Bitcoin. Data from Biscoint, which follows crypto prices and trading activity across 10 venues, including Binance and Mercado Bitcoin, showed that USDT turnover against the real increased 150% from the previous Sunday. USDC, the second-largest stablecoin, recorded a 318% increase.
Activity remained elevated on Monday. Combined USDT and USDC turnover reached 1.84 billion reais, or $350 million, 65% above the previous week. Bitcoin trading rose more than ninefold to 1,336 BTC.
Trading patterns differed across markets. On Binance, bitcoin turnover against the real increased 370%, while the global BTC/USDT pair recorded a 25% decline. Bitcoin gained 9.4% against the real but slipped 0.2% against USDT, a pattern consistent with a weakening real rather than a broad rise in bitcoin’s dollar value.
The episode illustrates the role stablecoins can play during periods of currency stress. These digital tokens are designed to track the value of an underlying asset, with USDT and USDC intended to maintain a value close to the US dollar. For companies operating in reais, buying them can provide a crypto-based form of dollar exposure even when stock and foreign-exchange markets are shut.
According to CoinDesk, the companies’ defensive positioning contrasted with the market reaction after the first round of voting three weeks earlier. Bolsonaro had then finished ahead of Lula, and investors responded by pushing the Ibovespa 7.7% higher while the dollar weakened by more than 4% against the real, reflecting expectations of a government more focused on controlling public spending.
Prediction markets miss the result
The election result also challenged the expectations priced into prediction markets. In an October 24 preview, Kalshi placed Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84%, even though the article accompanying the estimate described polling as showing a very close contest. Kalshi and Polymarket have both been blocked in Brazil since April.
Lula’s victory made him the first presidential candidate in Brazil’s modern democratic era to win a presidential election after finishing second in the first round. The runoff also included a controversial last-minute two-hour extension to voting time granted to Lula’s former defense attorney.
Einar Knobel, chief executive and co-founder of sports data and technology company TxODDS, said prediction markets had reflected the first-round result, polling headlines and the narrative built around them. He argued that the result did not necessarily show the mechanism had failed, because it had processed the information available to participants.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar market data recorded on October 25, 2026, showed bitcoin at $80,430.506808014, down 0.08% over 24 hours and 1.32% over seven days. Tether USDt was priced at $0.9987425383, with a 0% 24-hour change and a 0.01% seven-day decline.
BNB stood at $740.8618136891, up 0.81% over 24 hours and 3.32% over seven days. NEAR Protocol was at $4.6166906773, rising 3.36% over 24 hours but falling 6.21% over seven days. These figures are Moneyiar data, with bitcoin and BNB recorded at 22:39 on October 25, USDT at 22:38, and NEAR at 22:38, all in the +03:30 time zone.
