Nine cryptocurrency companies have formed the Quantum Alliance to help blockchain networks prepare for a future in which quantum computers could threaten some existing digital signatures. The group’s launch comes as researchers and industry executives debate how soon that danger could emerge—and what should happen to bitcoin that may be vulnerable.
The alliance says an estimated 6.4 million bitcoin, equal to 30.2% of the total supply, have publicly exposed keys. That does not mean the coins can be taken today: no existing quantum computer is powerful enough to break the cryptography protecting them. But if a sufficiently capable machine is developed, attackers could potentially use a wallet’s visible public key to derive its secret key and authorize unauthorized transactions.
The holdings commonly attributed to Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, are among the most closely watched assets in this category. An estimated 1.1 million bitcoin are associated with Nakamoto, and the possibility that those coins could eventually become exposed has intensified the debate over ownership, network rules and the limits of intervention.
Disagreement over when quantum attacks could become possible
There is no accepted timetable for the arrival of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer, often referred to as a CRQC. Bryn Bennett, chief revenue officer at The Vault, said the estimates have been moving closer but that custodians should focus on whether assets can be migrated before a threat materializes, rather than trying to settle on a specific year.
Richard Carback, chief technology officer of Postquant Labs, takes a more immediate view. He said 2028 is a realistic date for a machine capable of breaking the cryptography used by bitcoin and Ethereum. Other researchers remain less certain. Recent work has lowered estimates of the computing power required for such an attack, but no current machine can perform it and forecasts remain disputed.
Christopher Smith, chief executive of quantum-resistant layer-1 blockchain Quantus, told CoinDesk that the party to build the first relevant quantum computer could potentially gain access to billions of dollars’ worth of exposed cryptocurrency. He said that outcome could involve government support, depending on which country developed the technology.
The uncertainty is one reason the alliance is focusing on preparation rather than a single prediction. Its members include Hacken, the Midnight Foundation, Quantus and Postquant Labs. The group plans to publish shared security tests and guidance intended to help Bitcoin, Ethereum and other networks move toward quantum-resistant systems.
The difficult question of freezing vulnerable bitcoin
Preparing the technology is only part of the challenge. If some coins remain exposed as quantum computing advances, the crypto industry must also confront whether those assets should be frozen, transferred or placed under another arrangement before an attack becomes possible.
Carback has said he prefers moving vulnerable coins rather than freezing them. Bennett has emphasized that the decision cannot simply be made by individual custodians, which are responsible for their clients’ assets rather than coins considered abandoned or inaccessible. In his view, freezing assets would be a governance decision for the Bitcoin network as a whole.
A freeze could reduce the risk of a future theft, but critics say it could also establish a precedent for restricting ownership and weaken Bitcoin’s principle that funds cannot be confiscated. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has suggested freezing Nakamoto’s estimated holdings if they remain untouched while quantum technology develops. Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp has also proposed limits on vulnerable coins.
Another idea from Carback is to place exposed coins in a trust and allow people who can demonstrate ownership to recover them. None of these approaches has been adopted as a Bitcoin rule, and the debate remains unresolved.
Why upgrading Bitcoin would require broad coordination
A quantum-resistant upgrade would involve replacing the digital signatures used to approve transactions. That is not a change one company or custodian can implement independently. Developers, miners, wallet providers, exchanges and users would need to coordinate on the new standards and on how existing holdings move to safer addresses or systems.
Bennett said the largest cost would not necessarily be designing replacement cryptography, but coordinating the many participants that operate around a blockchain. New signature systems could also require more blockchain space, potentially increasing transaction fees or reducing the number of transactions the network can process. Researchers are working on ways to limit those effects.
The Quantum Alliance is therefore seeking common testing and migration guidance before a working quantum attack exists. Its effort reflects a central tension for Bitcoin holders: the network may need to change its security technology to protect some funds, but any intervention involving long-dormant or vulnerable coins could challenge the rules and neutrality that underpin the system.
Current crypto market picture
Moneyiar market data at 21:34 on October 17, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $80,923.35, down 0.89% over 24 hours and 2.50% over seven days. Ethereum was at $2,383.20, down 1.40% in 24 hours and 4.93% over seven days.
Quant traded at $192.90, falling 5.11% over 24 hours and 19.67% over seven days. Compound stood at $21.27, down 3.84% over 24 hours and 14.67% over seven days.
