Bitcoin’s on-chain activity is showing signs that long-term holders are becoming less willing to sell, a pattern CryptoQuant says has historically appeared near the beginning of major market rallies. The analysis comes as the amount of Bitcoin held in coins that have remained unmoved for at least 18 months has edged lower from a recent high.
Long-term holders are becoming less active
According to Cointelegraph, the share of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization linked to coins that have not moved for 18 months or more declined from 26.98% on Sept. 16 to 26.59%. The earlier figure was the group’s highest share since mid-November 2024.
Realized capitalization values each Bitcoin based on the price at which it last moved on-chain, rather than using the current market price. Looking at realized cap by the age of unspent transaction outputs, or UTXOs, therefore provides an indication of how much of the network’s value is associated with coins held for different lengths of time.
CryptoQuant’s analysis found that the current decline resembles a pattern seen before previous Bitcoin bull markets. The analytics firm said that when the proportion of Bitcoin held for more than 18 months rises and then begins to fall, a strong rally has historically followed.
The recent movement remains limited, however. CryptoQuant said the reversal in the age-band trend is still modest and described the market as being in the early stages of a potentially bullish cycle. Its assessment is based on reduced on-chain spending by long-term investors, which can indicate that these holders are maintaining their Bitcoin exposure rather than taking profits.
The contribution of the 18-month-plus group had been broadly increasing from November 2025. Profit-taking activity also rose as Bitcoin moved further below its reported all-time high of $126,200, but the latest data suggest that the oldest holders have not continued increasing their activity at the same pace.
Older Bitcoin cohorts remain mostly profitable
The analysis also examined the cost basis of Bitcoin held for different periods. Among long-term holders, the only group currently in aggregate loss is the cohort that has held coins for between 18 months and two years. Its reported cost basis is $93,193.
Bitcoin’s price has moved below that cohort’s cost basis since the 2025 record high, while older groups remain in aggregate profit. CryptoQuant said 2026 is the first bear market in which Bitcoin has remained above the cost basis of coins held for two to three years.
The distinction matters because cost basis helps show whether a group of holders is, in aggregate, sitting on unrealized gains or losses. Holders with gains may be more able to sell profitably, while those with losses may be less inclined to sell unless they decide to reduce exposure.
Crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital recently characterized Bitcoin’s drawdown from its all-time high as the shallowest on record, with a maximum decline of 53%. The source material does not indicate that the current on-chain signals guarantee a rally; rather, they are being presented as historical indicators that may help describe the market’s current phase.
Five-year dormant coin activity has fallen
A separate measure also points to lower activity among Bitcoin’s oldest holders. Coins that have not moved for at least five years represented about 34,000 BTC in average monthly on-chain volume in 2026, according to the data cited in the analysis. That is roughly half the corresponding level in 2024.
Galaxy Digital said coins in this age group had supplied 67,000 BTC per month in 2024 and 47,000 BTC per month in 2025. It estimated that 1.11 million BTC had moved from this cohort since October 2024, describing it as the largest distribution of old coins in any cycle. Most of that supply was absorbed by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and Bitcoin digital-asset treasury companies, according to Galaxy’s report.
The firm also linked five-year-plus Bitcoin holders to the supply increase that helped limit further upside around the $126,200 high. The reduction in monthly supply from this group during 2026 is now part of the case for a renewed long-term uptrend, although the analysis stops short of offering a forecast.
Current Bitcoin market picture
Moneyiar market data recorded Bitcoin at $80,430.51 at 22:39 on Oct. 25, 2026, in the supplied market snapshot. Bitcoin was down 0.08% over 24 hours and 1.32% over seven days.
The same snapshot showed TRON at $0.3299297572, down 0.89% over seven days after rising 0.31% in 24 hours. Monad was priced at $0.0215496181, down 0.49% over 24 hours but up 2.33% over seven days. Tagger stood at $0.0004958519, with gains of 5% over 24 hours and 6.77% over seven days. These figures are Moneyiar data from the stated time and are separate from CryptoQuant’s on-chain analysis.
