The Federal Reserve kept its target interest-rate range unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, but a split vote and stronger language on economic activity left open the possibility of another increase at the central bank’s December meeting. Bitcoin showed little immediate reaction, rising about 0.2% to roughly $80,950 shortly after the announcement.
Fed pauses after September increase
The policy decision passed by 10 votes to two. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, preferring a quarter-point rate increase instead of holding rates steady.
According to Decrypt, the decision followed the Federal Reserve’s first rate increase since 2023, delivered in September through a unanimous 12-0 vote. The latest outcome therefore represents a pause, but not a unanimous one, with two officials arguing that further tightening was needed.
The federal funds rate is the interest rate banks charge one another for overnight loans. Because it serves as a reference point across the financial system, changes in the rate can influence borrowing costs for households and businesses, including credit-card balances and car loans.
The Fed’s latest statement described economic activity as expanding at a “strong” pace, an upgrade from the “solid” pace used in September. It also said job gains had kept pace with the workforce and that the unemployment rate had changed little.
The central bank continued to describe inflation as elevated. Rather than committing to a specific next move, it said that accumulating more information would help policymakers determine the appropriate stance to bring inflation back to its 2% goal.
Inflation and oil keep pressure on policymakers
The rate decision comes as higher energy costs add to inflation concerns. The source material says the U.S.-Iran war has constrained global oil supply, while U.S. crude settled at $99.90 a barrel on Tuesday. More expensive crude can raise gasoline and transportation costs, with those increases eventually affecting other consumer goods.
Consumer prices rose 3.7% over the 12 months through September, according to the Labor Department data cited in the report. Gasoline prices alone increased 9.1% during the month.
Inflation also affects government bond markets. When investors expect higher inflation, they generally demand more interest for lending to the government, pushing Treasury yields higher. The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark followed by mortgage rates, closed Tuesday at 4.99%, after reaching 5.31% on October 5.
Higher Treasury yields can make income-producing government debt more attractive compared with assets that do not generate interest. Bitcoin pays no yield, so changes in the relative appeal of bonds can influence how investors allocate money between Treasuries, stocks and cryptocurrencies. The effect can be especially pronounced when traders use leverage, or borrowed money, to enlarge their positions.
December meeting will bring new projections
Market expectations already pointed to a possible increase at the Fed’s next meeting on December 8-9. Before Wednesday’s announcement, traders had assigned a probability above 70% to another quarter-point hike, while the CME FedWatch tool had put the odds of no change at about 90% ahead of the current decision.
Minutes from the September meeting showed that most officials believed another increase would probably be appropriate before the end of the year. However, the number of dissenters fell from three in July to two in the latest vote. Hammack also dissented in July, while Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan, who supported a hike then, backed the majority this time.
Several economic releases will arrive before the December decision:
- The October jobs report is due on November 6.
- October inflation data is scheduled for November 10.
- The Fed will meet on December 8-9 and publish updated economic projections.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. after the December decision, offering further explanation of the policy outlook.
Bitcoin and Moneyiar market picture
Bitcoin briefly moved above $81,600 earlier Wednesday before retreating below a resistance area between $81,000 and $82,500, a zone that has limited several attempted rallies this year. The cryptocurrency’s modest move after the Fed announcement contrasted with the potential for sharper swings when leveraged positions are liquidated. The source material notes that about $481 million in crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours after Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech in August.
Moneyiar market data, recorded at the stated times, showed Bitcoin at $80,430.506808014, down 0.08% over 24 hours and 1.32% over seven days as of October 25, 2026, at 22:39 +03:30. Ethereum stood at $2,342.0570017305, up 0.02% over 24 hours and down 1.77% over seven days at the same time.
The same Moneyiar data showed PlaysOut at $0.0349806107, up 12.7% over 24 hours and 28.72% over seven days as of September 25, 2026, at 06:29 +03:30. Nesa was priced at $0.1132042175, up 1.36% over 24 hours and down 4.27% over seven days as of October 25, 2026, at 22:38 +03:30.
