The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, with futures and prediction markets assigning more than 90% probability to a hold. The decision comes as inflation remains elevated, hiring weakens and Bitcoin traders watch for signals about a possible rate increase in December.
Markets Expect No Change
The Fed is scheduled to release its decision at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference with Chair Kevin Warsh. According to Decrypt, traders see little chance of a move at this meeting: CME FedWatch places the probability of a hold above 90%, while prediction markets put it a few percentage points higher.
The federal funds target range is currently 3.75% to 4.00%. The central bank moved that range higher in September in a unanimous 12-0 decision, marking its first rate increase since 2023.
The federal funds rate is the interest rate banks charge one another on overnight loans. It also provides a reference point for borrowing costs across the economy, including credit cards and loans. Holding rates steady would therefore preserve the current policy setting, but the accompanying statement and Warsh’s answers could shape expectations for the next meeting.
The Fed will not publish a new set of economic projections at this meeting. Updated projections are due in December.
Inflation and Employment Complicate the Decision
The latest data present policymakers with competing pressures. Consumer prices increased 3.7% in the 12 months through September, according to the Labor Department. Gasoline prices rose 9.1% during the month, while oil was trading near $100 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran war reduced global supply.
Higher crude prices can raise the cost of gasoline, transportation and shipping, with those increases potentially feeding into prices for other goods, including groceries. Persistent inflation gives the Fed a reason to keep monetary policy restrictive or consider another increase.
At the same time, the labor market has lost momentum. Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, compared with forecasts of about 90,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. That slowdown gives policymakers a reason to consider the effect of additional rate increases on economic activity and employment.
The likely combination of unchanged rates and a message that further tightening remains possible is being described by analysts as a “hawkish hold.” September meeting minutes showed that most officials thought another increase would probably be appropriate before the end of the year. Several officials also judged that the existing policy rate was “not restrictive or only mildly restrictive.”
December Hike Is the Main Market Question
Futures and prediction markets assign a 75% to 80% probability to another quarter-point increase at the Fed’s December 8-9 meeting. The voting pattern in the statement could provide an important signal. The Fed’s July decision was 9-3, with three officials favoring a rate increase, so a dissent supporting tighter policy at this meeting would indicate that a December move has strong backing.
Warsh has avoided committing to a future path. In September, he said, “I’m not going to prejudge any future decisions we make.” He also said, “I’m not in the forward guidance business,” indicating that he would not signal future decisions directly.
The possibility of higher rates has implications beyond government borrowing costs. The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark followed by mortgage rates, was hovering around 5% after reaching 5.31% on October 5. When government bonds offer higher yields, investors may demand greater compensation to hold assets that do not provide income and carry more risk.
Bitcoin does not pay a yield and can experience substantial price swings. Those characteristics can make it more sensitive to changes in interest-rate expectations, especially when Treasury yields are elevated. Bitcoin was trading around $80,700 in the source-market snapshot, just below a price area where sellers had repeatedly halted rallies this year.
Leverage can intensify market moves around Fed announcements. Traders using borrowed funds may have positions automatically closed when prices move against them, creating liquidations and adding to selling pressure. After Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech in August, roughly $481 million in crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours, including more than $360 million in positions betting on higher prices.
Moneyiar Market Picture
Moneyiar market data recorded on October 25, 2026, show the following prices and performance:
- Bitcoin (BTC): $80,430.506808014, down 0.08% over 24 hours and 1.32% over seven days, as of 22:39 +03:30.
- NEAR Protocol (NEAR): $4.6166906773, up 3.36% over 24 hours and down 6.21% over seven days, as of 22:38 +03:30.
- Ark (ARK): $0.1757378999, down 1.77% over 24 hours and up 3.34% over seven days, as of 22:38 +03:30.
- Infinity Ground (AIN): $0.1025293171, down 31.28% over 24 hours and up 48.1% over seven days, as of September 16, 2026, at 01:39 +03:30.
These figures are Moneyiar data recorded at the stated times and are separate from the market levels cited in the Fed decision report. The immediate focus for traders remains the Fed’s statement, the voting split and Warsh’s press conference, while the next major policy test is expected at the December meeting.
