Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research says Bitcoin has likely moved beyond its latest bear market, arguing that the cryptocurrency entered an accumulation phase after reaching a low in June. Alex Thorn described the current level as “an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin,” although the report also identifies a technical condition that would challenge his view.
Galaxy’s case for a market bottom
In a report published Monday, Thorn said Bitcoin’s downturn ended in June. His conclusion rests partly on the cryptocurrency’s recovery above its 50-week moving average, a widely followed technical indicator that tracks the asset’s longer-term price trend.
Bitcoin spent 44 weeks below that average before reclaiming it in September. The week ending October 18 represented its fifth consecutive weekly close above the measure. Thorn noted that Bitcoin has reclaimed the average after periods of at least 20 weeks below it four times since 2011. In each of those instances, the price did not close more than 8.4% below the reclaim level during the following year and eventually recovered its previous all-time high.
The timing of Bitcoin’s halving cycle also supports Thorn’s argument. A halving cuts the reward paid to miners for adding new blocks, reducing the amount of new Bitcoin entering circulation. The three previous cycles reached their lows between 777 and 912 days after a halving. Thursday marked day 916 of the latest cycle, according to the report.
The latest decline was also the least severe of those cycles. Bitcoin fell 53%, compared with previous cycle drawdowns ranging from 77% to 93%.
On-chain data and ETF demand
Data from the Bitcoin network provides another part of Galaxy’s analysis. Bitcoin’s market value did not fall below its realized value during the latest downturn. Realized value represents the aggregate price at which coins last moved, and is often used to estimate the average on-chain cost basis.
That was the first time the measure remained above realized value throughout a Bitcoin bear market, Thorn said. The market-value-to-realized-value ratio reached a low of 1.10, compared with previous cycle lows of 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75.
Short-term holders—investors whose coins were involved in the recovery from $58,525—had an average cost basis of $74,811 and were sitting on an estimated 9% gain. Yet the spent-output profit ratio was 1.009, a level Thorn interpreted as evidence that relatively few holders were selling into those gains.
Selling by long-dormant holders has also slowed. Bitcoin that had remained unmoved for at least five years was sold at a rate of about 34,000 BTC per month this year, roughly half the pace recorded in 2024.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds added 87,000 BTC after the June low, according to the report. Their holdings declined only 11% from peak to trough even as Bitcoin’s price fell 53%, suggesting that ETF demand did not contract by the same proportion as the market price.
Macro backdrop and the report’s risk level
Thorn also pointed to the broader financial environment. U.S. federal debt had reached $40.44 trillion, while the fiscal year 2026 ended with a $1.99 trillion deficit. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.31% during October, its highest level since 2007.
Higher Treasury yields can make Bitcoin less attractive by offering investors a comparatively low-risk return from government debt. Higher interest rates can also raise borrowing costs and support the dollar. Those pressures have contributed to a volatile market, particularly after hotter-than-expected inflation data revived expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase.
The report’s bullish view comes as Bitcoin remains well below its previous peak. It traded around $80,000 on Thursday, 36% below its October 2025 high but 39% above its June 30 low. On Sunday, it briefly fell to approximately $79,700. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shifted from a three-day inflow streak totaling $1 billion to two days of substantial outflows, leaving October flows negative.
Thorn’s stated warning signal is a weekly close below the 50-week average, currently $76,540, that is not recovered within one month. He also wrote that Bitcoin has previously shown the ability to reach at least $125,000 and saw no reason it could not regain that level. Galaxy and Thorn disclose that they hold Bitcoin.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar market data at 22:39 on October 25, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $80,430.51, down 0.08% over 24 hours and 1.32% over seven days. Other tracked assets were:
- OriginTrail (TRAC): $0.3709267304, down 3.98% in 24 hours and 5.10% over seven days.
- Gala (GALA): $0.001737693, down 1.68% in 24 hours and 8.21% over seven days.
- AI Rig Complex (ARC): $0.0594624188, down 3.60% in 24 hours and up 46.65% over seven days.
According to Decrypt, Thorn’s assessment is that Bitcoin has entered accumulation rather than another prolonged bear-market phase. The report’s indicators describe a market that has held key long-term levels, but its own tripwire shows that the thesis remains dependent on Bitcoin maintaining and reclaiming those levels if they are lost.
