Bitcoin’s recovery may face a significant supply hurdle near $85,000, as long-term holders are sitting on losses tied to roughly 4 million BTC purchased at higher prices, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
The coins were acquired between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly during 2025, and are now held by investors who have kept them for more than 155 days. With Bitcoin trading below that range, many of those holders remain underwater. A return toward their entry prices could therefore bring renewed selling as some investors seek to exit around break-even.
Glassnode’s assessment, reported by Decrypt, comes as Bitcoin remains well below its record high while exchange-traded fund investors are also close to recovering their original outlays. The data points to a market where outright panic selling has eased, but where demand has not yet been strong enough to push prices decisively through an important resistance area.
Why $85,000 has become a key barrier
Glassnode said more than half of the Bitcoin held by long-term investors was bought above the current market price. The 4 million BTC purchased between $85,000 and $118,000 is worth approximately $326 billion at a Bitcoin price of about $81,400.
The $84,000-$85,000 area has rejected Bitcoin four times this year, according to the analytics firm. Since January, Bitcoin has closed above $85,000 on only five days, and never for more than three consecutive days. The cryptocurrency last moved above the level in September, when it reached $87,100.
Bitcoin’s current price is also around 35% below its all-time high of $126,080. That gap underlines the scale of the decline, but the distribution of investor cost bases means that a recovery could encounter selling before the market reaches its previous peak.
When investors who bought at higher prices regain their entry level, they may decide to sell rather than continue holding. That potential supply is the central reason Glassnode believes a move above $85,000 could be difficult to sustain.
ETF investors and interest rates add to the pressure
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded-fund holders are close to break-even as well. Bloomberg Intelligence places their average cost basis just below $82,000, while Glassnode estimates it at about $81,500. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart estimated that these investors had approximately $2.63 billion in unrealized losses as of Monday.
Seyffart said the calculation reflects fund flows rather than the prices paid by investors who later bought ETF shares in the secondary market. Bitcoin has remained near the ETF investors’ estimated average cost since the end of August, according to his assessment.
The wider interest-rate environment is another factor affecting demand for risk assets. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest-rate range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented because they preferred a rate increase. Before the decision, traders had assigned a probability above 70% to another quarter-point hike in December.
Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey, said the possibility of a December increase had already been partly reflected in market pricing. He argued that high U.S. Treasury yields and real interest rates were more important constraints because they increase the opportunity cost of holding riskier assets.
The 10-year Treasury yield was just below 5% at midday Thursday, compared with 5.05% at Wednesday’s close and a 52-week high of 5.37% on October 7.
ETF flows improve, but buying remains uneven
Funding rates in Bitcoin perpetual futures have also fallen, reducing the returns available from cash-and-carry arbitrage. That strategy involves buying spot Bitcoin while taking a short position in futures. Galaxy Research said nine hedge funds and banks reduced their spot ETF exposure by the equivalent of 68,000 BTC as the trade became less attractive. Wealth platforms and sovereign funds moved in the opposite direction by adding exposure.
More recently, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $424 million in inflows from Monday through Wednesday, according to SoSoValue data. That followed $635 million in outflows on October 22, showing that fund demand has improved but has not yet established a consistent trend.
Glassnode said realized losses have become smaller during each decline since August. At the August low, realized losses exceeded profits by roughly $630 million in one day. Around the October 24 decline, the largest daily net loss was approximately $27 million.
Sun characterized the market’s main problem as a lack of fresh buying rather than widespread panic selling. He said Bitcoin could remain between $75,000 and $85,000 in the short term until broader liquidity conditions improve and ETF inflows become consistently positive. Glassnode identified about $42 million in Binance bids between $78,000 and $79,000, while newer buyers have an average cost basis of roughly $75,800.
Whether buyers can absorb selling from long-term holders near $85,000 could help show whether Bitcoin’s recovery is gaining strength.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar market data at 22:39 on October 25, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $80,430.51, down 0.08% over 24 hours and 1.32% over seven days. Cap was priced at $0.10847, up 35.10% in 24 hours and 55.28% over seven days. ADI stood at $8.0410, down 0.27% over 24 hours and 2.60% over seven days.
