Banks may have more influence over stablecoin adoption than previously thought, because better savings rates can make traditional deposits more attractive to customers. That is the conclusion of a new Bank for International Settlements working paper examining U.S. data from 2019 through mid-2025.
According to Decrypt, BIS economist Iñaki Aldasoro and Rashad Ahmed of the Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics found that stablecoin market growth slowed when banks increased the interest rates paid on deposits. The paper examined weekly data from January 2019 to June 2025.
Deposit rates and stablecoin growth
Stablecoins are digital tokens designed to maintain a stable value, commonly against the U.S. dollar. They are used in cryptocurrency markets and for transferring or holding dollar-linked value, but the tokens covered by the study did not pay interest to holders during the period examined.
In the researchers’ sample, stablecoin market capitalization increased by about 15% over a typical 10-week period. Under the paper’s baseline estimate, a one-basis-point increase in bank deposit rates reduced that growth to roughly 12%. A second approach intended to better distinguish cause from coincidence produced a larger effect, with growth slowing to about 6%.
The results indicate that higher deposit rates did not reverse stablecoin expansion. Instead, they reduced its pace. The authors said the relationship was stronger for Circle’s USDC than for Tether’s USDT, linking the difference to USDC’s closer connection with U.S. users.
Why the researchers see a causal link
To test whether the relationship was more than a simple correlation, the authors examined how banks typically adjust savings rates as monetary conditions change. Their analysis focused on a pattern in which lenders tend to make only limited changes to savings rates until the federal funds rate moves above approximately 3%, after which deposit pricing adjusts more quickly.
The paper’s conclusion is that banks “retain some influence over the pace” of stablecoin adoption through the rates they offer depositors. This could matter to banks concerned that stablecoins might draw away customers or funds: raising deposit rates may make conventional accounts relatively more appealing.
The findings have important limitations. The study covers one high-interest-rate cycle, and its results come from a working paper, meaning they represent the authors’ views and not necessarily the official position of the BIS.
Regulation and the current market picture
The authors said regulators should consider whether stablecoin issuers should be permitted to pay yield to token holders. They also pointed to the trade-offs involved in requiring issuers to hold part of their reserves in bank deposits. Banks have opposed allowing stablecoin yield, an issue that featured in the debate surrounding the failed Senate vote on the Clarity Act.
Meanwhile, the OCC, FDIC and Treasury are preparing rules to implement the GENIUS Act, which takes effect in January. The law, signed by President Donald Trump in July of last year, established U.S. rules for stablecoin issuance, use and custody.
Moneyiar market data at 22:28-22:29 on October 19, 2026, showed USDC at $0.9999016199, down 0.01% over 24 hours and unchanged over seven days. The STABLE token was $0.0249451628, up 3.91% in 24 hours but down 8.16% over seven days. Ethereum Name Service traded at $5.5108333927, while ApeCoin stood at $0.1456934428.
