J.P. Morgan Asset Management has assigned Bitcoin a projected compound annual return of 10% over the next 10 to 15 years, placing the cryptocurrency above the firm’s long-term forecasts for U.S. large-cap stocks, gold and a traditional 60/40 portfolio. The projection is the firm’s first long-term Bitcoin forecast, but it comes with a significant warning about volatility and the difficulty of incorporating the asset into standard portfolio models.
Bitcoin tops JPMorgan’s return estimates
The forecast appears in J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the 31st edition of its long-range market outlook. According to Decrypt, the report estimates that Bitcoin will deliver a 10% compound annual return over a 10- to 15-year period.
That figure is higher than the firm’s projections for several established assets and portfolios:
- U.S. large-cap stocks: 7.5%
- Gold: 5.5%
- A traditional 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolio: 7%
A compound annual return measures the rate at which an investment would need to grow each year, with gains reinvested, to reach a particular long-term result. It differs from a simple arithmetic average of yearly returns, which does not fully reflect the effect of large gains and losses over time.
JPMorgan’s report puts Bitcoin’s arithmetic average annual return at 20.9%. That is more than twice its compound forecast, a difference the firm links to Bitcoin’s large price swings. In practical terms, substantial volatility can reduce the return that compounds over time, even when the average of individual yearly returns appears high.
The caveat: unusually high volatility
JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%, compared with about 17% for gold. Volatility is a measure of how widely an asset’s price has fluctuated; a higher figure indicates a less stable return path.
That risk profile is the main reason Bitcoin was not added to the firm’s principal portfolio models. JPMorgan said it does not yet include the cryptocurrency in its main covariance matrices, which are used to assess how assets move in relation to one another. Stable relationships between assets are important when constructing diversified portfolios, because investors use them to estimate how different holdings may perform together during changing market conditions.
Instead, the asset manager created a separate, smaller matrix comparing Bitcoin with a limited group of assets. It cited Bitcoin’s volatility and unstable correlations as barriers to including it more broadly in its standard portfolio analysis.
The report also rejected a popular argument among Bitcoin supporters: that the debasement of traditional currencies will automatically lead to a major rush into cryptoassets. JPMorgan described that case as “wide of the mark,” according to the report.
Crypto industry welcomes the recognition
The inclusion of Bitcoin in the long-term assumptions marks a change in how the asset is treated by one of Wall Street’s major investment firms. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan welcomed the forecast while challenging the assumptions behind it, particularly the 55% volatility estimate.
Hougan argued that the volatility figure may be too high and that this could make JPMorgan’s return projection too conservative. Bitwise manages crypto index funds and exchange-traded funds, giving the firm a direct interest in how digital assets are assessed by major institutions.
JPMorgan’s forecast also comes as the bank expands its own involvement with blockchain-related projects. The bank is bringing JPM Coin, a token representing dollar deposits, to the Ethereum blockchain. It has also joined BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation in efforts involving tokenized stocks.
The report therefore presents a mixed view: Bitcoin is now important enough to receive a formal long-term return estimate, but JPMorgan still considers its risk and diversification characteristics too uncertain for inclusion in its main portfolio frameworks.
Market picture
Moneyiar market data at 11:59 a.m. on October 21, 2026, put Bitcoin at $83,425.50640856. The cryptocurrency was up 2.51% over the previous 24 hours and 0.05% over seven days.
The source material said Bitcoin had been trading near $82,000 when JPMorgan’s report was discussed. It also noted that the 10-year Treasury yield was above 5%, offering a competing return with considerably lower volatility, while JPMorgan’s global bond forecasts were at their highest level in two decades.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $526.7 million in inflows on the Monday covered by the report, their strongest day since September 22. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $665.2 million of those inflows, and October’s net outflows were reduced to about $88 million. The figures show that institutional and market interest remains part of the backdrop to JPMorgan’s first long-term Bitcoin estimate, even as the bank emphasizes the asset’s risks.
