The NFL has entered the legal battle over sports prediction markets, supporting New Jersey’s request for the U.S. Supreme Court to review a ruling that protects Kalshi’s sports-related contracts from state gambling laws.
In an amicus brief filed Thursday, the league argued that the Third Circuit incorrectly treated Kalshi’s contracts as financial “swaps” under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The NFL said the products should instead be subject to state oversight because they function as wagers on sporting events rather than as instruments designed to hedge an existing financial risk.
The filing adds the country’s most prominent professional sports league to a widening dispute over who should regulate prediction markets. According to Decrypt, different federal appeals courts have reached conflicting conclusions, leaving the Supreme Court as the institution that could settle the issue.
A dispute over federal and state authority
New Jersey is asking the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit’s decision, which shielded Kalshi’s sports event contracts from state gambling regulations. The NFL’s position aligns with rulings from the Sixth and Ninth Circuits, which took the opposite view.
At the center of the case is the meaning of a “swap” under the Dodd-Frank financial reform law. The NFL contends that the definition is intended to cover contracts used to manage or hedge risks that already exist. In its view, contracts that create exposure to the result of a game do not fit that definition and should remain within state gambling frameworks.
The disagreement has practical consequences. If the Third Circuit ruling stands, prediction-market operators could continue offering sports contracts under federal commodities oversight rather than complying with the differing gambling rules imposed by individual states. Kalshi and other operators, including Polymarket, have faced resistance from state regulators as these products have become more visible.
NFL cites safeguards it says are missing
The NFL’s brief says the league asked the CFTC and operators such as Kalshi to adopt several protections but did not receive the safeguards it wanted. Those requests included prohibiting contracts involving events that a single participant could easily manipulate, player injuries, officiating decisions and outcomes that might be known before trading ends.
The league also pointed to differences in age requirements. People aged 18 can trade on Kalshi, while most states set the minimum age for sports betting at 21, according to the brief.
The NFL questioned whether the CFTC has enough personnel to supervise a rapidly expanding market, noting that the agency has 543 employees nationwide. It also argued that operators’ general insider-trading policies are insufficient without league-specific lists identifying people who should be barred from trading on relevant contracts. Without those lists, the NFL described such restrictions as ineffective.
NFL-related contracts represented $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded across prediction markets on the first Sunday of the season, the league said. The figures illustrate why the NFL is seeking a resolution before the 2027 season. The league is represented in the case by former U.S. Attorney General William Barr.
The NFL is not calling for prediction markets to be eliminated. If the Supreme Court upholds the Third Circuit’s decision, the league said it would intensify efforts to persuade the CFTC, market operators and Congress to introduce stronger integrity and consumer protections before the 2027 season.
Sports gaming attorney Daniel Wallach wrote on X that the NFL’s filing “meaningfully increases the chances” that the Supreme Court will agree to hear the case. Former CFTC and SEC Chair Gary Gensler and former Senator Christopher Dodd, who helped pass Dodd-Frank, have also filed briefs supporting New Jersey, according to the source material.
Other leagues take a different approach
The NFL’s stance contrasts with actions by other major sports organizations. Major League Baseball named Polymarket its exclusive prediction-market sponsor in March and entered an integrity agreement with the CFTC. The NHL became the first major league to license its trademarks to prediction markets.
Sports-betting companies are also expanding into the area: DraftKings and FanDuel have launched prediction markets of their own. The broader industry is attracting ambitious projections, with Bernstein analysts estimating a $10 trillion opportunity in prediction markets. Robinhood Chief Executive Vlad Tenev has said crypto contracts could eventually become larger than sports contracts.
Market picture
Moneyiar market data at 21:44 on October 8, 2026, showed Ethereum at $2474.6574255354, down 3.55% over 24 hours and 7.98% over seven days. Solana was $110.1125260869, down 4.75% in 24 hours and 6.32% over seven days.
Lighter stood at $3.6092517597, up 0.78% over 24 hours but down 4.54% over seven days. OriginTrail was $0.3975856824, down 2.71% over 24 hours and 12.47% over seven days. These figures are Moneyiar data; the Solana reading was recorded at 21:43 on October 8, 2026.
