Prediction markets are seeking a larger role in finance, insurance and journalism after industry executives, policymakers and trading firms gathered in New York for the NEXTPredict conference on October 22 and 23. With the U.S. midterm elections less than two weeks away, political contracts were central to the discussions, but speakers also focused on financial hedging, faster news trading and the market’s growing retail audience.
According to Decrypt, the event brought representatives from Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood and other participants to Convene Hudson Yards. The gathering examined whether contracts built around real-world outcomes can develop beyond elections and sports into tools for businesses and investors.
A $3 million hedge that was not needed
The conference opened with an example of how prediction-market contracts could be used to manage risks that conventional insurance may not fully cover. NEXTPredict had paid a $12,000 premium on Kalshi for contracts that would have paid roughly $3 million if more than half of the scheduled arrivals at New York’s JFK airport had been cancelled the day before the event.
The trade ultimately lost because the disruption did not meet the contract’s condition. Pierre Lindh, NEXTPredict’s co-founder, said he was pleased with that result because it meant attendees were able to reach the conference. He contrasted the contract with traditional event-cancellation insurance, which may cover a cancelled event but not necessarily a major disruption that leaves it technically proceeding while seriously damaging its operations.
Joe Grubb, head of business development at trading firm Susquehanna, said his company took the other side of the contract and modelled the risk internally within about one or two days. Nicolas Hull, Kalshi’s director of business development, said smaller businesses were beginning to use the exchange for hedging, citing a New York bar that covered a promotion linked to the Knicks’ playoff performance.
Hull said Kalshi could list almost any contract if it was certified by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and supported by a verifiable data source. That framework is important because prediction-market contracts depend on clearly defined outcomes and reliable methods for determining whether those outcomes occurred.
Polls, markets and the midterms
The approaching U.S. midterms made election forecasting a major subject at NEXTPredict. Chuck Todd, the former NBC News political director, moderated a discussion comparing polling with prediction markets. He said he had become bullish on the latter’s potential role in journalism, arguing that the presence of money could create an incentive for participants to reach accurate conclusions.
Todd also said prediction markets had, in effect, taken the place once occupied by exit polls on election night. At the same time, he rejected the idea that traditional polling was inherently broken, saying high-quality polls remained possible but had become expensive.
Other speakers urged caution. Rajiv Sethi, a Columbia University professor, noted that faster information is not automatically more accurate. John Phillips, chief executive of PredictIt, referred to the concept as the “wisdom of crowds,” rather than the “wisdom of whales,” highlighting the risk that prices may be heavily influenced by a smaller number of large traders.
That concern was illustrated by a later result in Brazil. Before the country’s presidential runoff, Polymarket assigned Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva roughly a 20% chance of defeating Flávio Bolsonaro, but Lula went on to win a fourth term. The source said experts attributed the result in part to Brazil’s ban on prediction markets, which meant the displayed odds were largely shaped by traders outside the country.
From sports to financial contracts
Robinhood executive JB Mackenzie said the company’s prediction-market business had expanded from elections into politics and sports, and was now moving toward economic and financial outcomes. Sports were still the largest category, he said, while contracts tied to Bitcoin, crude oil and gold were growing fastest.
Mackenzie said probabilities were simple for customers to understand. Polymarket’s Bailey Springer said financial regulators in major global centres were increasingly recognising that prediction markets were likely to persist and could have uses in investing and hedging. Polymarket’s position, she said, was that these instruments are derivatives and should be regulated accordingly.
The industry is also competing on speed. Farokh Sarmad, president and co-founder of Decrypt Media, said individual traders often react after professional firms when important news emerges. He argued that combining news consumption and trading on one platform could reduce that delay. Decrypt is pursuing that approach through its Solana-based Information Exchange, while Sarmad said broader adoption would require activity to move on-chain.
Morgan Stanley led sessions on the conference’s second day, underscoring the attention from institutional finance. Lindh said the next major debate could compare prediction markets directly with insurance, particularly where businesses face risks that are difficult to cover through conventional policies.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data at the stated times showed mixed performance among the listed digital assets:
- Polygon (prev. MATIC), now identified as POL, was priced at $0.0898082186, up 0.39% over 24 hours but down 0.74% over seven days, as of October 25, 2026, at 22:39 +03:30.
- OriginTrail (TRAC) was priced at $0.3709267304, down 3.98% over 24 hours and 5.1% over seven days, as of October 25, 2026, at 22:38 +03:30.
- edgeX (EDGE) was priced at $0.3244313833, up 0.81% over 24 hours and 13.63% over seven days, as of October 25, 2026, at 22:38 +03:30.
These figures describe the supplied market snapshot and do not indicate how prediction-market activity will develop.
