A slowdown in the artificial-intelligence stock rally could give cryptocurrencies a chance to attract more capital, while a weaker US dollar would improve the backdrop for a broader crypto advance, according to Real Vision founder Raoul Pal. He also expects AI agents to create demand for blockchain networks such as Ethereum and Solana, rather than Bitcoin alone.
Dollar, yields and the search for liquidity
Speaking to Cointelegraph on the latest episode of Trade Secrets, Pal said crypto markets are being constrained by higher bond yields and a strong dollar. In his view, a decline in the US currency could remove an important obstacle to further gains, although he stopped short of describing the market environment as fully supportive.
Pal’s preferred combination would be a weaker dollar, a steeper yield curve and greater bank lending, which would expand the supply of money available in the financial system. The alternative he considers more favourable than a sharp AI sell-off is for AI shares to move sideways. That could allow some capital to rotate toward crypto without signalling that liquidity is disappearing from markets altogether.
The distinction matters because Pal does not regard an AI crash as a positive development for digital assets. A collapse in AI-related stocks could indicate that liquidity is being withdrawn from the broader financial system, making it harder for crypto to sustain an advance. In his view, severe market breaks are less likely when liquidity is plentiful.
Borrowing costs have recently moved in the opposite direction to the conditions Pal would prefer. The source material says the US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.29% in September, while the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point.
Crypto has already benefited from an AI pause
Pal pointed to an earlier period when money appeared to move between the two themes. Bitcoin rose by about 25% between Aug. 19 and Aug. 25, reaching $80,000. During the same period, Nvidia, a major indicator of investor enthusiasm for AI, recorded seven consecutive losing sessions.
He described this as evidence of a rotation in available liquidity, but stressed that capital is not yet abundant. The argument is not that investors must choose permanently between AI and crypto. Rather, a pause in one popular trade can temporarily make room for another, provided broader financial conditions do not deteriorate sharply.
Pal has followed both macroeconomic and crypto markets for many years. He previously worked in hedge-fund sales at Goldman Sachs in Europe and co-managed a global macro fund at GLG Partners. He founded Global Macro Investor in 2005 and co-founded financial media company Real Vision in 2014. He said he first bought Bitcoin in 2013 after applying a valuation framework based on gold.
AI agents may favour smart-contract networks
Pal’s view is that the economic activity created by AI agents will mostly take place on smart-contract platforms, potentially benefiting Ethereum and Solana more directly than Bitcoin. Smart contracts are programs on a blockchain that can execute transactions when specified conditions are met.
The source material says AI agents can already pay to access online content using stablecoins through a feature introduced by Amazon Web Services in June. Coinbase verifies and settles those payments through its x402 protocol, with USDC on Base among the supported payment options.
Pal believes agents could eventually raise funds for their own operations by issuing tokens to finance projects lasting a week, a month or a year. If those systems begin using blockchain-based contracts to transact, he expects Ethereum and Solana to gain adoption over time.
He remains cautious, however, about predictions that Solana will surpass Ethereum in market value during the current market cycle. Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani made that prediction on Trade Secrets last month, but Pal said it was too early to be confident, even while acknowledging that the outcome was possible.
The two networks lead on different measures. DefiLlama data cited in the source showed about 3.2 million active Solana addresses over the preceding 24 hours on Monday, compared with 387,000 for Ethereum. Ethereum, however, had approximately $54.4 billion locked in decentralized-finance protocols, versus $6.7 billion on Solana.
Pal describes this difference as “economic density”: the amount of capital associated with each active user. In his assessment, Ethereum has greater capital concentration, while Solana’s activity involves smaller transaction amounts and is more focused on speculation.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data at the times shown below indicates that the two networks discussed by Pal were trading lower over both measured periods:
- Ethereum (ETH): $2,589.1411704389, down 4.54% over 24 hours and 3.72% over seven days, as of 2026-10-07 10:19 +03:30.
- Solana (SOL): $117.5799830546, down 2% over 24 hours and 1.44% over seven days, as of 2026-10-07 10:18 +03:30.
Moneyiar also recorded declines for Shiba Inu and Uniswap. SHIB was priced at $0.0000054924, down 6.6% over 24 hours and 5.24% over seven days at 10:19 +03:30. UNI stood at $8.0533524438, down 9.48% over 24 hours and 8.68% over seven days at the same time.
Pal said he no longer gives public price targets because forecasts can be clipped and circulated without their original context. He called the idea of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030 a meme linked to wider adoption, ETF interest and Bitcoin’s use as collateral. He said he would not rule out that level by 2032, but did not present it as a firm forecast.
