Robinhood is seeing stronger demand for prediction-market contracts linked to bitcoin, gold and oil, as customers use the platform for financial-market events in addition to sports and elections.
JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president and general manager for futures and prediction markets, said the price-volatility products are among the fastest-growing parts of the company’s prediction-market business. He made the comments at the NEXTPredict conference in New York on Thursday, according to CoinDesk.
Sports remains Robinhood’s largest prediction-market category. However, Mackenzie said activity is shifting toward contracts that track moves in financial assets. These products give users a way to trade on whether an asset will reach a specified price, or move in a particular direction, by a stated time.
Financial events move into focus
Prediction markets allow participants to buy contracts tied to the outcome of an event. Contract prices generally reflect the market’s implied probability of a particular result. A bitcoin contract, for example, might ask whether the cryptocurrency will trade above a certain level at a designated time.
Unlike buying bitcoin directly, such a contract gives the trader exposure to the outcome of a specific question rather than ownership of the underlying asset. The same structure can be applied to commodities such as gold and crude oil, as well as to economic announcements and other events.
The sector initially became widely associated with election markets, but has expanded into sports, economic data and short-term financial price movements. Robinhood entered the prediction-market business through a partnership with Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction-market exchange, and has been adding event contracts to its broader trading platform.
The company’s largest event contract in September was linked to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision rather than a sporting event, Mackenzie said. That result points to interest in contracts based on major economic decisions, alongside products tied directly to asset prices.
Shorter settlement periods bring greater speed
Crypto-related prediction contracts are also being settled over increasingly short periods. Mackenzie said the products had moved from weekly settlement periods to daily periods and, in some cases, to 15 minutes.
A shorter settlement period means that the contract’s outcome is determined over a narrower window. That can make the product more responsive to brief price movements, while also increasing the speed at which a trade can lose value.
Mackenzie compared 15-minute crypto contracts with zero-day options, which expire on the same trading day. He noted that both can lead to rapid losses, although the two products have different structures.
The expansion beyond sports comes as sports-related prediction contracts face legal challenges from state gambling regulators. The disputes raise questions about how much of the sports market will remain available, while financial contracts could provide another area of growth for prediction-market platforms.
Prediction markets carry risks that differ from simply holding an asset. A trader can be wrong about the outcome, and a contract with a short settlement period leaves little time for a view to change. The possibility of rapid losses is particularly relevant for products based on volatile assets such as bitcoin.
Robinhood hopes event contracts lead to other products
Robinhood views prediction markets not only as a standalone business but also as a way to introduce customers to its other financial services. Mackenzie said users who begin by trading event contracts often go on to explore equities, cryptocurrencies, futures and options. Some also discover the company’s individual retirement accounts.
That cross-product activity could make prediction markets strategically important even beyond the revenue generated by the contracts themselves. Mackenzie said Robinhood has 11 businesses that each generate more than $100 million in annual revenue, and suggested that prediction markets could become the fastest-growing segment among them.
The comments describe a business that is broadening beyond its largest category, sports, into contracts connected to market prices and economic policy. Bitcoin, gold and oil products are at the centre of that shift, while the Federal Reserve’s September decision illustrates how event contracts can also reflect interest in traditional financial institutions and macroeconomic developments.
Current market picture
Moneyiar market data at 07:59 on October 24, 2026, showed bitcoin at $80,605.6111, down 1.04% over 24 hours and 1.23% over seven days.
Other listed assets were also mixed:
- Monad was $0.0211563, down 2.53% in 24 hours and 6.65% over seven days.
- Compound was $23.8274, down 2.43% in 24 hours but up 8.21% over seven days.
- OriginTrail was $0.4212151, up 11.27% in 24 hours and 6.08% over seven days, with the data recorded at 07:58.
These market figures provide a snapshot of price movements in selected digital assets; they are Moneyiar data at the stated times and are separate from Robinhood’s prediction-market contracts.
