Robinhood’s prediction-market business generated $173 million in revenue during the third quarter, surpassing the $120 million it made from cryptocurrency transactions and giving event contracts a larger role in the trading platform’s results. The figures highlight how prediction markets are becoming a new source of income for crypto and retail-trading companies, even as their contribution varies widely across platforms.
According to CryptoSlate, Robinhood’s third-quarter event-contract revenue represented 12.1% of the company’s total net revenue of $1.424 billion. The result also came as Robinhood’s crypto revenue declined 55% from a year earlier, making the performance of its event-contract business particularly significant in the company’s latest results.
Robinhood’s event contracts move ahead of crypto
Robinhood’s event-contract revenue has increased in each of the first three quarters of 2026. The company reported $104 million in the first quarter, followed by $156 million in the second and $173 million in the third.
Together, those figures amount to $433 million for the first nine months of the year. Revenue in the third quarter was about 66% higher than in the first quarter. Event contracts had already generated more revenue than cryptocurrency transactions in the second quarter, when the comparison was $156 million versus $100 million.
Event contracts are agreements tied to the outcome of an event. Users trade positions based on whether a specified result will occur, rather than buying or selling an asset such as a cryptocurrency. The products have drawn attention from trading platforms seeking activity and revenue streams beyond conventional digital-asset transactions.
Robinhood has also warned that enforcement actions, litigation or changes in law could affect its ability to continue offering event contracts. That regulatory uncertainty remains part of the business context as the company expands the product.
Coinbase reports a larger annualized measure
Coinbase disclosed on Oct. 29 that its prediction-markets business had exceeded $200 million in annualized net revenue. That figure is not the same as revenue actually recorded during a single quarter. Coinbase defines the measure using the most recent qualifying quarter and projects it over a full year.
The company also said prediction-market revenue had achieved 82% compound quarterly growth over the product’s operating history. Daily traders rose by more than 60% from the previous quarter, and people using prediction products generated additional spot-trading volume.
Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas said the business brought in revenue that was less correlated with cryptocurrency-market volatility. That gives Coinbase another source of activity as exchanges look to become less dependent on cycles in digital-asset trading.
The difference between Coinbase’s annualized figure and Robinhood’s reported quarterly revenue is important when comparing the businesses. Robinhood’s $173 million is revenue for a specific three-month period, while Coinbase’s more than $200 million is an annualized measure based on a recent quarter.
Gemini’s contribution remains modest
Gemini reported a considerably smaller prediction-market business in its second-quarter filing. The company recorded $524,000 in prediction-market revenue for the three months ended June 30, equal to about 1.2% of its $45 million in total revenue.
Prediction revenue for the first half of the year was $968,000. That implies first-quarter revenue of $444,000 and quarter-on-quarter growth of approximately 18% in the second quarter. Gemini receives transaction fees when prediction trades are executed.
Predictions were still a minor part of Gemini’s broader financial results. The company’s second-quarter diversification was driven mainly by services revenue, which increased 149% year over year, while exchange revenue declined 38%.
Other platforms have announced prediction products without disclosing comparable revenue figures. Crypto.com launched its OG prediction-market platform on Feb. 3, and Chief Executive Kris Marszalek cited 40-fold weekly growth over six months without specifying the measure or reporting revenue. Bybit introduced Bybit Prediction within Bybit Alpha on June 10, initially focusing on football. Phemex announced on April 23 that a product powered by Polymarket had launched the previous day.
OKX’s Outcomes League campaign, announced in August, used free, nonmonetary points rather than real funds, so its activity is not directly comparable with the revenue figures reported by Robinhood, Coinbase or Gemini.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data as of Nov. 1, 2026, at 12:53 p.m. +03:30 showed mixed performance among the listed digital assets:
- Nexus (NEX) was priced at $0.0000006833, down 3.78% over 24 hours but up 13.54% over seven days.
- BAS traded at $0.0149488808, falling 3.63% in 24 hours and 11.54% over seven days.
- ONEchain (ONE) stood at $0.107377192, down 1.3% on the day and up 6.3% over the week.
- RedStone (RED) was priced at $0.1355759154, up 2.35% in 24 hours but down 5.12% over seven days.
The earnings disclosures show that prediction markets are developing unevenly across trading platforms. At Robinhood, they have already exceeded cryptocurrency revenue in recent quarters. Coinbase is reporting rapid growth through an annualized metric, while Gemini’s contribution remains small. The next measure of their importance will be whether the products generate recurring revenue at a scale that materially changes each company’s reliance on crypto trading.
