Strategy expects a $4.1 billion income-tax benefit after the fair value of its Bitcoin holdings moved above their cost at the end of September, according to a filing dated Oct. 5. The estimate reflects an accounting adjustment rather than cash generated directly by selling Bitcoin, and the figures prepared by management have not been audited or reviewed by KPMG.
The development highlights how Bitcoin’s price can affect different holders in different ways. Strategy’s corporate tax accounts, the Bitcoin held by an exchange-traded fund and the break-even price of an individual ETF investor are separate measures, each based on its own purchase history.
Strategy’s accounting adjustment
Strategy said it reversed a deferred tax asset connected with its Bitcoin holdings and released the related valuation allowance. That change produced the estimated $4.1 billion reduction in income-tax expense after Bitcoin’s fair value exceeded cost at the Sept. 30 reporting date.
A deferred tax asset is an accounting item that can reflect expected future tax benefits. A valuation allowance reduces the amount recognized when those benefits may not be available. In Strategy’s case, the filing describes the benefit as arising from the adjustment to those tax accounts following the change in the value of its Bitcoin position.
The September comparison is separate from a later holding disclosure. As of Oct. 4 at 4 p.m. Eastern time, Strategy reported 848,000 BTC at an average purchase price of $75,440.70 per Bitcoin, including fees and expenses. That figure uses a different cutoff from the Sept. 30 accounting measurement.
CryptoSlate reported that the management figures are unaudited and have not been reviewed by KPMG. The estimate therefore describes the company’s reported accounting position, not a realized gain from a disposal of the cryptocurrency.
ETF costs do not set every investor’s break-even point
The same price level can have different significance for an ETF and for the people who own its shares. Maketo estimated that the average cost of Bitcoin remaining in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, known by its ticker IBIT, was $81,188 per BTC on Oct. 2. The estimate reconstructs the cost of the fund’s underlying Bitcoin using daily flows and prices.
An IBIT shareholder, however, buys a security in the market at a particular price and date. Investors who entered at different times can therefore have different break-even levels, even though their shares represent interests in the same pool of Bitcoin. The fund’s estimated acquisition cost cannot be treated as the purchase price of every shareholder’s position.
BlackRock’s Oct. 5 holdings file listed approximately 806,038 BTC for IBIT. The fund’s page showed nearly $69 billion in net assets and a Bitcoin benchmark level of $85,694.41 that day.
For historical context, IBIT’s June 30 quarterly filing listed 734,261 BTC with an investment cost of about $61 billion and a fair value of approximately $43.4 billion. The filing also recorded significant turnover: during the six months ending June 30, the trust acquired 157,501 BTC and disposed of 192,970 BTC in connection with share redemptions. Those figures include in-kind transfers.
What redemptions may mean for the Bitcoin market
Selling ETF shares on a stock exchange is different from redeeming shares directly with the trust. Only authorized participants can create or redeem baskets with IBIT. Under the prospectus, a cash redemption requires the trust to convert underlying Bitcoin into cash, while an in-kind redemption transfers Bitcoin to the recipient.
That distinction matters when assessing whether ETF outflows lead to Bitcoin sales. A transfer of Bitcoin in an in-kind redemption does not by itself establish that the recipient immediately sells the asset. The later decision by the recipient determines whether the transfer ultimately produces market selling.
The available figures also do not establish that investors accelerated redemptions when the fund’s holdings were below cost. Comparing that question would require daily flows, prices and cost estimates aligned to the same dates, while investor motives would still remain uncertain.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined net outflows of $89.8 million on Oct. 5, according to the source material, although Farside Investors’ data showed inflows for BlackRock’s fund during that session. The contrasting figures demonstrate that money moved in different directions across the funds on the same day.
Current market picture
Moneyiar market data at 10:44 a.m. on Oct. 7, 2026, showed Bitcoin at $83,638.39, down 2.91% over 24 hours and 0.27% over seven days. Bitcoin remained the No. 1 cryptocurrency by market capitalization in the supplied market information.
The price movement gives context to the accounting and fund-level comparisons, but a shared market price does not identify which holder is buying or selling, nor does it reveal that holder’s cost basis. For Strategy, the key consequence described in the filing is a tax-accounting benefit. For ETFs and their shareholders, the implications depend on the timing and structure of creations, redemptions and subsequent decisions over the transferred Bitcoin.
