The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has taken steps to draw a clearer federal regulatory line between prediction-market contracts and traditional gambling, according to CryptoSlate. The agency proposed treating contracts tied to sports, politics, cultural events and weather as swaps, while separately moving to exclude sportsbook and casino wagers from that category.
Two different regulatory tracks
The CFTC announced the actions on Oct. 9. One is a proposed rule that would expressly include a broad group of event contracts in the legal definition of a swap, a type of financial derivative regulated under the Commodity Exchange Act.
The proposal covers contracts based on the outcome of sporting events, political developments, cultural events and weather conditions. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig said these products fall within the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Event contracts can resemble ordinary bets because they commonly allow users to take a “yes” or “no” position on whether a future event will occur. The position generally has a fixed payout, usually $1, and its value changes according to the likelihood of the specified outcome. The CFTC said such contracts can be used either to hedge risk or to speculate.
That structure is different from the way a conventional sportsbook wager is presented, even though both products can involve an uncertain future event and a potential payout. The distinction has become important as prediction-market platforms and betting businesses offer products that may appear similar to consumers but face different regulatory questions.
The proposed classification is not yet final. The CFTC is inviting written comments through Regulations.gov for 30 days after the proposal is published in the Federal Register. The announcement itself does not provide that publication date, so Oct. 9 does not establish the start or end of the comment period.
Casino and sportsbook wagers would be excluded
The second action is an interim final rule concerning casino-style gambling products. It would codify the CFTC’s longstanding position that wagers placed through sportsbooks and casino games are not swaps.
Unlike the event-contract proposal, the exclusion takes effect when it is published in the Federal Register. That publication would also begin a 30-day period for public comments. The agency did not specify the Federal Register publication date in its announcement.
In practical terms, the two actions seek to separate financial contracts traded on event outcomes from wagers that the agency considers gambling products. A swap classification can determine which federal regulator has authority over a product and how the product is treated under the Commodity Exchange Act. However, the classification does not necessarily resolve every legal dispute involving prediction-market operators.
State gambling laws remain a separate issue
A recent court ruling illustrates why a federal classification argument may not be enough for operators seeking to offer sports-related contracts across the United States.
On Sept. 25, the Sixth Circuit ruled on preliminary-injunction appeals involving prediction-market operator Kalshi. The court found that Kalshi had not shown that its sports-event contracts satisfied the statutory definition of a swap. The court also held, in the alternative, that even if the contracts were swaps, the Commodity Exchange Act did not expressly or implicitly override Ohio’s or Tennessee’s gambling laws.
That alternative finding is significant for the broader industry. It means that an operator could prevail in arguing that a product belongs within a federal derivatives framework and still face state-level restrictions or challenges under gambling laws.
The CFTC’s position has also attracted criticism. Better Markets, an advocacy group, said sports-event contracts enable sports betting and should therefore remain subject to state gambling laws. Benjamin Schiffrin, the group’s securities-policy director, made that argument in a statement on Oct. 9.
The disagreement reflects the central regulatory question surrounding prediction markets: whether these products should primarily be treated as financial instruments, gambling products, or potentially different things depending on their design and use. The CFTC’s proposed and interim rules could clarify the agency’s own position, but the court decision indicates that state authority will remain an important part of the dispute.
Moneyiar market picture
Moneyiar data at the stated times show mixed performance among the listed digital assets:
- Solana (SOL) was trading at $109.5130351242, down 0.24% over 24 hours and 9.69% over seven days, as of Oct. 11, 2026, at 11:53 a.m. +03:30.
- OriginTrail (TRAC) stood at $0.4071335126, up 0.39% in 24 hours but down 9.46% over seven days, as of 11:54 a.m. +03:30.
- RedStone (RED) was at $0.1481383995, down 1.10% in 24 hours and 15.14% over seven days, as of 11:54 a.m. +03:30.
- Ontology (ONT) was unchanged over 24 hours at $0.0605774296 and up 1.45% over seven days, as of 11:53 a.m. +03:30.
These figures describe market prices and recent performance; they do not indicate how the CFTC’s actions will affect any particular asset or platform.
