The probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 rose above 32% on Polymarket, reaching its highest level since Aug. 2. The move followed Senate Republicans’ release of a 635-page final compromise ahead of Tuesday’s cloture vote. The draft is intended to settle several outstanding disputes surrounding the landmark crypto market-structure legislation. The increase also came after a reported concession from Donald Trump, according to CryptoSlate. The Senate vote represents a key procedural test for the bill, with the final Republican proposal now available before lawmakers decide whether to advance it. Market-based odds remain below a majority, indicating that Polymarket traders still assign less than even odds to enactment this year. The legislation is being closely watched across the crypto sector because of its potential implications for the market’s regulatory framework.
